Full Breakdown
Ultra-wealthy Pivot Capital to Conflict Sectors Amid Heightened Geopolitical Tensions
5/5/2026, 12:50:14 PM
Capital Shift to Conflict Sectors
Members of the world’s ultra-rich are reallocating assets into energy, metals and defence technology, while expanding family-office footprints globally to hedge against a polarised global order.
Geopolitical Drivers
The reallocation follows heightened tensions from the Iran conflict, U.S. pressure on Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro, and strategic moves over Greenland, spurring trade disruptions and safe-haven demand for commodities.
Key Investors' Moves
- Jaime Gilinski (Colombia’s richest man) added $107 million to GeoPark Ltd., targeting Venezuela’s oil resurgence.
- Heirs of Swedish tycoon Adolf Lundin invested C$40 million in Vancouver copper and diamond miners to benefit from supply-chain-driven price gains.
- Ferrari, Cox Enterprises, and the Porsche-Volkswagen dynasties backed defence startups, including Hermeus Corp., which is developing the fastest uncrewed jet for the U.S. Department of Defense.
- Carlos Slim has reported outsized gains from the same commodity and defence market dynamics.
- Filip Balcaen’s Belgian family office expanded its U.S. private-equity team, reflecting broader geographic diversification.
Data and Scale
A JPMorgan survey of 333 super-rich firms placed geopolitics as the top risk for one-in-five respondents, ahead of liquidity and inflation. The four families hold about $90 billion in net worth, with fortunes dating to 1898. Global uncertainty has added over $20 billion to investors’ wealth in listed defence firms this year. Nearly half of family offices operate in more than one country, up from one-third in 2023 (KPMG-Agreus).
Official Perspectives
Emissary Partners’ managing principal Sara Macedo said the geopolitical and geoeconomic overlay has never been more critical to capital stewardship. deVere Group chief Nigel Green said wealth structures are being reinforced to let assets move, adapt and endure, adding diversification is being rewritten.
Verbatim Quotes
“We are operating in a time where the geopolitical and geoeconomic overlay has never been so important to capital stewardship,” — Sara Macedo, Managing Principal, Emissary Partners
“Wealth structures are being strengthened to ensure assets can move, adapt and endure regardless of how geopolitical conditions evolve,” — Nigel Green, CEO, deVere Group
“Diversification is being rewritten.” — Nigel Green, CEO, deVere Group
“Families should have their eyes beyond the horizon, understanding how decisions are being made at the most senior levels.” — Business Times commentary
Impact and Outlook
The shift signals a redefinition of risk management, treating conflict-linked assets as core holdings rather than peripheral hedges. Expanding family-office footprints aims to shield wealth from sanctions, trade barriers and regional instability. Growing capital in defence startups may blur lines between public procurement and commercial innovation, accelerating advanced military technology deployment. Analysts will monitor performance of conflict-driven assets to gauge how concentrated wealth influences, and is influenced by, a volatile global order.
