Full Breakdown
Michigan Special Election Could Tip State Senate Balance
5/5/2026, 2:21:40 PM
The 35th District Contest: Stakes and Candidates
A special election on Tuesday, May 5, 2026, will fill Michigan’s 35th State Senate seat. Democrats currently hold a 19-18 majority; a Republican win would tie the chamber, giving Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist the tie-breaking vote while allowing GOP senators to block measures by withholding votes. The race pits Democrat Chedrick Greene, Republican Jason Tunney, and Libertarian Ali Sledz.
Background: Vacancy and Legislative Context
The seat has been empty since Jan 3, 2025, when Democrat Kristen McDonald Rivet resigned to join the U.S. House. Governor Gretchen Whitmer called a special primary for Feb 3 and a special general election for May 5 after criticism that the district lacked representation for nearly 500 days. The Michigan House is under Republican control, making Senate control pivotal for Whitmer’s final legislative months.
Candidate Profiles
Greene is a fire captain and former Marine backed by unions; his campaign emphasizes cost reductions. He has raised $404,000, including $24,500 each from the Michigan Labor Political League, the Michigan Regional Council of Carpenters, and Whitmer’s Building Bridges PAC. Tunney, a former prosecutor, lawyer, and businessman, focuses on public safety, education, and tax cuts. He has raised $398,000, self-loaned $212,500, and received three $24,500 contributions from PACs linked to Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt. Libertarian Ali Sledz of Midland also appears on the ballot.
Campaign Finance Snapshot
The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee invested $250,000 in February, and the Senate Democratic Fund has spent roughly $694,000 on the contest. The Senate Republican Campaign Committee reported $158,000 in expenditures, underscoring the race’s high cost relative to typical special elections.
Data & Statistics: Voting History and Trends
The district covers Saginaw, Bay City, and Midland, a former auto-industry hub with strong union and Black voter blocs surrounded by conservative rural areas. In 2022, McDonald Rivet won the seat 53%-47%; in the 2024 presidential race, Donald Trump carried all three counties, yet the district split 49.7%-48.9% for Kamala Harris versus Trump. Analysts describe the district as a microcosm of statewide politics.
Official Statements & Responses
Governor Whitmer said the special election restores representation for a “critical region.” The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee called the contest a “tone-setter for the midterms.” Lt. Gov. Gilchrist noted his constitutional role as tie-breaker. Republican Party Chair Jim Runestad labeled the seat a “50-50 bellwether.” Senate Democratic campaign chair Darrin Camilleri projected a Democratic advantage.
Criticism & Opposition
Republicans accuse Whitmer of delaying the election, leaving constituents voiceless for over a year. Tunney warned that surging gas prices “don’t help” his campaign and criticized state direction. Democrats counter that robust spending is necessary to preserve a functional majority.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Camilleri predicts a Democratic win, while Runestad and Republican consultant Jason Cabel Roe describe the race as tightly contested and note that gas-price concerns may not translate into legislative blame. No public polling data are cited, leaving voter-turnout projections uncertain.
Verbatim Quotes
- “It’s really this microcosm of the Midwest, frankly,” — Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet, U.S. Representative (D-MI)
- “I don’t think it helps.” — Jason Tunney, Republican candidate for 35th State Senate district
- “Republicans are going to lose on Tuesday by a big margin, and Republicans know it,” — Darrin Camilleri, Chairman, Senate Democrats’ campaign team
- “If Republicans win, there’s every reason to believe that things will get even slower on non-budgetary issues,” — John Sellek, Republican strategist, Harbor Strategic Public Affairs
- “We are headed in the wrong direction,” — Jason Tunney, Republican candidate
- “It doesn’t mean they’re not surly and pissed off,” — Jason Cabel Roe, Republican political consultant
What’s Next: Implications for November
The victor will serve the remainder of the term and run as the incumbent in the August primary, making the May outcome a key early indicator for the November 2026 gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races. A Democratic hold preserves a functional majority; a Republican flip would create a tied Senate and test the party’s ability to influence state policy ahead of the midterms.
