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Paxton Holds 48-45% Lead Over Cornyn, 95% Support

5/5/2026

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Paxton Leads Runoff

A Houston poll shows 95% of March voters who backed Ken Paxton plan to support him again in the runoff.
Ken Paxton leads John Cornyn 48% to 45% among likely Texas Republican runoff voters in a poll of 1,200.
Among men, 49% favor Paxton versus 46% for Cornyn, while women show 47% versus 45%.
James Talarico leads John Cornyn 44%-41% and Ken Paxton 46%-41% in hypothetical general polls.

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Paxton Donors Abstain

Major Texas donors who backed Attorney General Ken Paxton are largely abstaining from his Senate bid, exposing an establishment-MAGA split.
Ken Paxton has raised about $13.5 million, far below his $20 million target, compared with Senator John Cornyn’s $11 million cash on hand.
Mayes Middleton leads Chip Roy by nine points among likely Republican attorney-general voters in Texas.
Tim Dunn and Wilks brothers, $1 million Paxton donors, gave only sums to his Senate run.

History

Historical Context

In 1994, George W. Bush defeated incumbent Democrat Ann Richards, winning 188 of Texas’s 254 counties and joining the Republican Revolution that ousted four sitting governors. That shift began a decades-long stretch in which no Democrat has won a statewide office, a pattern echoed today as Republican senators Ken Paxton and John Cornyn clash in a runoff that could revive intra-party tensions.

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Paxton Leads Runoff

A Houston poll shows 95% of March voters who backed Ken Paxton plan to support him again in the runoff.
Ken Paxton leads John Cornyn 48% to 45% among likely Texas Republican runoff voters in a poll of 1,200.
Among men, 49% favor Paxton versus 46% for Cornyn, while women show 47% versus 45%.
James Talarico leads John Cornyn 44%-41% and Ken Paxton 46%-41% in hypothetical general polls.

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