Full Breakdown
2026 NHL Draft Lottery: Format, Odds and Team Stakes
5/6/2026, 2:12:56 AM
The Live Draw and Its Mechanics
The NHL will conduct the 2026 Draft Lottery on May 5 at 7 p.m. ET from the NHL Network studio in Secaucus, New Jersey. Four of fourteen numbered ping-pong balls are drawn in 30-second intervals to create a four-digit code; there are 1,001 possible permutations, with one sequence (11-12-13-14) designated for a redraw. Commissioner Gary Bettman will preside over the draw, Ernst & Young will oversee it, and deputy commissioner Bill Daly will announce the order. The event will be televised live on ESPN, Sportsnet and TVA Sports, with a simultaneous stream on Fubo and the ESPN app.
Odds and Combinations: Who Holds the Best Chances
Teams receive a number of four-digit combinations proportional to their regular-season finish. The Vancouver Canucks have the most with 185 combinations (18.5 % raw odds), followed by the Chicago Blackhawks (135 combos, 13.5 %) and the New York Rangers (115 combos, 11.5 %). The Toronto Maple Leafs hold 85 combinations (8.5 %). Because a team may move up a maximum of ten spots, only the eleven lowest-seeded teams can win the first overall pick; the Canucks’ effective chance of landing No. 1 is therefore 25.5 %. The full list of odds appears in multiple sources.
Conditional Picks and Team Stakes
The Boston Bruins entered the lottery with a direct interest in Toronto’s first-round pick, acquired in the March 2025 Brandon Carlo trade. The pick is top-five protected: if the Leafs finish outside the top five after the lottery, the Bruins receive the 2026 pick; otherwise the Leafs retain it and the Bruins will receive Toronto’s 2027 or 2028 first-rounder. The Bruins also hold eight selections in the 2026 draft, including the conditional pick. Other teams with notable stakes include the Nashville Predators (3.5 % chance at No. 1, 3.7 % at No. 2) and the Florida Panthers (6 % chance at No. 1).
Top Prospects Targeted by Lottery Winners
Scouting reports rank Penn State forward Gavin McKenna as the No. 1 North American skater (15 G, 36 A in 35 games) and Swedish winger Ivar Stenberg as the top international prospect (33 points in 43 SHL games). Additional early-round candidates mentioned across sources include defensemen Chase Reid, Keaton Verhoeff and forward Carson Carels.
Official Statements & Responses
- “The lottery will be held at NHL Network’s studio in Secaucus, N.J., and will be broadcast on ESPN, Sportsnet and TVA Sports.” – NHL press release.
- “If Toronto’s 2026 first-round pick lands in the top five, Toronto keeps it; otherwise Boston receives it.” – Summary of the March 2025 trade terms.
Criticism & Opposition
The shift to a live, on-camera draw was presented as a response to prior criticism of secrecy. Steve Mayer, NHL president of content and events, said:
> “We learned a lot from last year, and this evolution makes the experience even more transparent and dramatic.” — Steve Mayer
> “As we get down to the final ball, every team still in the mix will know exactly what needs to be drawn—and when it happens, it’s one of the most exciting moments of the entire year.” — Steve Mayer
Some analysts argue that the ten-spot move-up limit, while curbing tanking, reduces the odds for the league’s lowest-ranked clubs.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Sources differ on the Vancouver Canucks’ odds: raw odds are listed as 18.5 % (185 combos) while the effective chance of securing the No. 1 pick is reported as 25.5 % after accounting for the move-up rule. No other major discrepancies appear in the data presented.
What’s Next
After the lottery determines the top two selections, the remaining first-round order will follow reverse regular-season standings. The 2026 NHL Draft is scheduled for June 26-27 at the KeyBank Center in Buffalo, New York, where the outcomes of the lottery—including whether Boston acquires Toronto’s 2026 pick—will shape each franchise’s offseason strategy.
