Full Breakdown
Russia Resumes Forex Purchases to Bolster Budget as Oil Revenues Surge
5/6/2026, 9:10:35 PM
Forex Purchase
On May 8, Russia will start buying foreign currency on open market, the first purchase since the Ukraine war, per a Finance Ministry statement. The plan calls for 110.3 billion roubles (?$1.46 billion) in purchases through June 4, mainly Chinese yuan, for the National Wealth Fund to stabilise the budget and curb rouble appreciation. The central bank will execute the transactions.
Background
Russia’s budget rule triggers currency purchases when oil exceeds $59 per barrel. After U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran at the end of February blocked Strait of Hormuz, oil rose above $100 per barrel. Windfall prompted the ministry to revive purchases suspended in February when lower prices and sanctions-linked discounts cut revenue.
Data
Net forex purchases will average 1.18 billion roubles per day, versus central-bank sales of 4.6 billion roubles per day. The rouble rose 0.9 % against the yuan after announcement. Oil and gas revenues fell 21.2 % YoY in April to 855.6 billion roubles ($11.32 billion), up from 617 billion roubles in March.
Official Response
Finance Ministry said the purchases aim to stabilise the budget and prevent the rouble from becoming overvalued. It added that deferred March forex sales will be offset against May’s purchase volumes, market impact. Central bank confirmed it will execute operations for the fund.
Criticism
T-Investment chief economist Sofya Donets said the purchase volume is below the ministry’s forecast of 14–18 billion roubles per day, suggesting revenues were lower than expected despite high prices. Analysts linked shortfall to Ukrainian drone attacks on ports and refineries that forced April output cuts. Some observers questioned logic of keeping rouble overvalued when purchases are modest.
Conflicts
The ministry’s forecast of 14–18 billion roubles per day contrasts with net 1.18 billion-rouble daily purchases. Yuan share of the 110.3 billion-rouble purchase is undisclosed. No comment addresses how drone attacks may have reduced windfall.
Quotes
- "The volume of currency purchases turned out to be significantly lower than expected, we had forecast 14–18 billion roubles per day," — Sofya Donets, Chief Economist, T-Investment.
- "This may indicate that the oil and gas revenues of the budget, from which the volume is calculated, were not as high in April as the prices of Russian oil would have allowed us to expect," — Sofya Donets, Chief Economist, T-Investment.
Impact
Channeling currency inflows into the National Wealth Fund helps the government smooth budgetary pressures under fiscal rule and avoid rouble appreciation that could hurt competitiveness. Operation also shows how Russia is handling the oil-price windfall from Middle-East tensions.
Outlook
The ministry will incorporate deferred March sales when finalising May’s purchase volume, and bank will continue daily transactions through June 4. Analysts will watch oil-price movements and fund adjustments.
