Iran War Accelerates Fossil-Fuel Windfalls and Renewable-Energy Momentum

The U.S.–led war against Iran, which began on 28 Feb., effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for roughly 20 % of global oil trade. Crude prices rose from about $61 a barrel in January to a peak of $119 by late March, before slipping to $100.72 after reports of a tentative cease-fire. The disruption also curtailed about one-fifth of the world’s liquefied natural gas flow, tightening supplies for Europe and Asia.

Oil and gas slump after report US and Iran near deal to end war

Shell reported first-quarter earnings of $6.9 bn, a 115 % increase over the prior quarter and 24 % above the same period a year earlier. BP posted a profit of $3.2 bn, more than double its $1.38 bn year-ago result, citing “exceptional oil trading.” Danish turbine maker Vestas and utility Ørsted both posted stronger-than-expected profits, while Norway’s Equinor recorded its best quarterly profit in three years, driven by higher fossil-fuel prices and gains in its clean-tech division.

The Guardian

At the same time, the cost of wind and solar power continued to fall, and battery storage now enables steady electricity supply even when the sun does not shine or the wind does not blow. Chinese solar-panel exports doubled in March, reaching a record level, and demand surged in Nigeria, India and Australia. European electric-vehicle sales and heat-pump installations also rose sharply, reinforcing the shift toward low-carbon technologies.

New York Times

Shell’s chief executive Wael Sawan attributed the profit surge to “relentless focus on operational performance” amid “unprecedented disruption in global energy markets.” Ørsted CEO Rasmus Errboe emphasized that Europe “doesn’t have to spend billions every week on fossil-fuel imports” and highlighted offshore wind as a cost-effective, secure alternative. Equinor CFO Torgrim Reitan said the war has moved the transition’s drivers from pure decarbonisation to energy security and self-sufficiency. Vestas CEO Henrik Andersen called the quarter “the best first-quarter earnings since 2018,” reflecting improved execution despite geopolitical uncertainty. UN climate chief Simon Stiell warned of an “immense irony” as leaders trying to keep the world hooked on fossil fuels inadvertently accelerate the renewables boom.

CNBC

Climate activists condemned the profit spikes. Chris Packham accused Shell of “profiting from illegal wars and burning up our one and only home.” Danny Gross of Friends of the Earth argued that “fossil-fuel giants are pocketing monstrous profits while drivers are being squeezed at the pump.” Anne Jellema of 350.org urged governments to tax excess profits and reinvest the proceeds in affordable, home-grown renewable energy.

The Guardian

• Shell profit: $6.9 bn (115 % QoQ rise)

The Guardian

• BP profit: $3.2 bn (? > 100 % YoY)

The Guardian

• Brent crude: $61 -> $119 -> $100.72 per bbl (2022-2026 range)

The Guardian

• Chinese solar-panel exports: record level, ? 2× March 2025 volume

New York Times

• Vestas and Ørsted: stronger-than-expected Q1 earnings

CNBC

Sources differ on recent price movements: one report notes a 40 % price climb since the conflict’s start, while another records an 8.3 % drop to $100.72 per bbl after a near-deal to end hostilities. Both trends are documented, reflecting market volatility amid ongoing negotiations.

The Guardian

Negotiations between the United States and Iran aim to lift the Hormuz blockade, which could ease supply constraints but may not immediately reverse price effects. Industry leaders anticipate continued investment in offshore wind and battery storage, while climate groups press for stronger windfall-tax regimes to fund renewable-energy expansion and protect vulnerable households.

New York Times

• “fought to keep the world hookedon fossil fuels are inadvertently supercharging the global renewables boom.” — Simon Stiell, UN Climate Chief

New York Times

• “In Europe, we see that there is clearly big momentum behind that,” — Torgrim Reitan, CFO, Equinor

CNBC

• “Europe is spending billions every week on fossil fuel imports — but it doesn't have to be that way," Orsted CEO Rasmus Errboe said in a statement.” — Rasmus Errboe, CEO, Ørsted

CNBC

• “profiting from illegal wars and burning up our one and only home” — Chris Packham, Climate Campaigner

The Guardian

• “Danny Gross, a climate campaigner at Friends of the Earth, said: “Fossil fuel giants are pocketing monstrous profits while drivers are being squeezed at the petrol pump and households are set to pay higher energy bills.” — Danny Gross, Friends of the Earth

The Guardian

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Oil and gas slump after report US and Iran near deal to end war