Full Breakdown
Maple Leafs Win No. 1 Pick in 2026 NHL Draft Lottery
5/6/2026, 9:40:45 PM
Recent Struggles and Draft History
The Leafs closed the 2025-26 campaign 32-36-14, 28th in the league with a –46 goal differential and a seven-game losing streak to end the season. Their last Stanley Cup dates to 1967; the most recent top-overall selection was Auston Matthews in 2016, who helped the club reach nine straight playoffs but never past the second round. Missing the postseason for the first time in a decade left the franchise with a top-five protected pick that could have transferred to Boston under the 2024 Fraser Minten-Brandon Carlo trade.
New Leadership: John Chayka and Mats Sundin
John Chayka, former Arizona Coyotes GM, was hired as the 19th Leafs general manager on May 4, with former captain Mats Sundin appointed senior executive advisor. MLSE CEO Keith Pelley introduced the duo, emphasizing a “data-driven model” and a “championship-calibre team.” Sundin pledged to help a fan base that “deserves greatness.” The hiring sparked immediate scrutiny because of Chayka’s 2020 departure from Arizona and a subsequent NHL suspension.
Odds, Record and Draft Implications
Entering the lottery, Toronto held an 8.5 % chance to land the No. 1 overall selection. The poor record secured a top-five protected pick; a drop would have sent the slot to Boston. Winning the lottery gives the Leafs the right to select on June 26 in Buffalo. Analysts project Penn State forward Gavin McKenna as the likely pick, though Ivar Stenberg is also mentioned as a strong alternative.
Official Statements & Responses
Chayka called the win “a monumental opportunity” and noted that “we haven’t had scouting meetings yet; it’s the second day on the job.” He added the organization will be “super diligent” before finalizing a decision. Pelley said he is “thrilled to welcome John and Mats” and that the hires will “strengthen our entire hockey club.” Sundin expressed that the “fan base deserves greatness” and that he is “grateful for the opportunity to help this team, organization and city achieve that.”
Criticism & Opposition
Veteran columnist Steve Simmons questioned the hiring process, reporting that of roughly 20 NHL insiders he consulted, only one supported Chayka while the rest called the hire a “sham” and used terms such as “con-artist” and “liar.” Simmons’ line of questioning at the press conference went viral, highlighting lingering doubts about Chayka’s credibility.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Well, you need some luck, and we got it tonight. … It’s a monumental opportunity.” — John Chayka, GM
- “The nice part is, is that I can answer honestly: we haven’t had scouting meetings yet. It’s the second day on the job. We’ll be super diligent and make sure we know everything.” — John Chayka, GM
- “I’m thrilled to welcome John and Mats to their roles, two great hockey minds that will strengthen our entire hockey club.” — Keith Pelley, MLSE CEO
- “This fan base deserves greatness, and I am grateful for the opportunity to help this team, organization and city achieve that,” — Mats Sundin, Senior Advisor
- “Of the 20 people I spoke to, one was supportive of his hiring, the other 19 thought it was a sham, to be perfectly honest,” said Simmons.” — Steve Simmons, journalist
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Sources differ on the projected No. 1 pick: most cite Gavin McKenna, while others suggest Ivar Stenberg could be selected. No definitive scouting reports have been released, leaving the final decision uncertain.
What’s Next
The Leafs will convene scouting meetings in the coming weeks, evaluate McKenna, Stenberg and other prospects, and announce their selection on June 26. Simultaneously, Chayka must address roster construction, defensive deficiencies, and the future of head coach Craig Berube before the October season opener.
