Full Breakdown
Devolved Elections Threaten Labour’s Hold as Nationalist and Reform Parties Gain Ground
5/6/2026, 11:34:40 PM
Upcoming Devolved Elections Threaten Labour’s Hold
Thursday’s ballots across Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland will decide whether Labour can retain its long-standing dominance in the devolved assemblies. The Scottish National Party (SNP) is projected to remain the largest party at Holyrood, while opinion polls suggest Plaid Cymru could become the biggest party in the Senedd, ending Labour’s uninterrupted rule in Wales since the assembly’s creation in 1999. Reform Party leader Nigel Farage’s party is also expected to finish second in Wales and possibly in Scotland, reshaping the union’s political map.
Historical Context of Labour’s Devolved Dominance
Labour’s control of Welsh devolved politics dates back to the first assembly election in 1999. In Scotland, the party’s “red wall” collapsed earlier, with the SNP dismantling Labour’s stronghold and establishing a permanent opposition government in Edinburgh. Keir Starmer’s landslide victory in the 2024 general election recovered some lost ground, but the SNP’s independence-driven base and a fragmented pro-union vote have kept Labour out of power in Scotland.
Key Political Actors
- Labour Party – Keir Starmer (UK leader), Anas Sarwar (Scottish leader), Eluned Morgan (Welsh First Minister).
- Scottish National Party (SNP) – governing party in Scotland.
- Plaid Cymru – led by Rhun ap Iorwerth, poised to seek a Welsh government.
- Reform Party – Nigel Farage (MP for Clacton), campaigning on immigration, economic insecurity and anti-Westminster sentiment.
- Conservative Party – facing a Brexit-aligned voter split.
- Liberal Democrats – consolidating support in former Tory suburbs.
- Green Party – led by Zack Polanski (non-MP).
Electoral Landscape and Projections
- SNP remains the biggest party at Holyrood.
- Plaid Cymru could become the largest party in the Senedd, a first since 1999.
- Reform Party is projected to finish second in Wales and may replicate that position in Scotland.
- Liberal Democrats are strengthening the “remainer belt” in England’s former Tory heartlands.
- Conservative support is divided along a Brexit fault line, weakening the party’s traditional base.
Official Party Positions
- Anas Sarwar has publicly repudiated Starmer’s leadership, citing the national Labour brand as a liability in Scotland.
- Eluned Morgan faces “double incumbency” pressure, with criticism that the Labour-led Westminster government can no longer deflect Welsh grievances.
- Plaid Cymru’s manifesto references an “ongoing national conversation about the options” for Wales, promising a future white paper on constitutional matters.
- Reform Party emphasizes immigration control, economic insecurity and opposition to Westminster, while downplaying constitutional reform.
Critiques of Labour Strategy and Farage’s Influence
Commentators describe Labour as a caretaker party struggling to define its core electorate, while the Conservatives are hampered by a fragmented Brexit-aligned base. Farage’s “Faragism” is characterized as an anglocentric, Brexit-coded nationalism that could intensify polarisation and fuel unionist backlash in the devolved nations.
Uncertainties and Gaps
No votes have been cast; projections rely on opinion polls and commentary. The exact magnitude of Reform’s surge and Plaid Cymru’s potential victory remain unverified, leaving the post-election composition uncertain.
Implications for the United Kingdom
A rise in pro-independence sentiment could pressure the union’s constitutional framework, while a more fragmented party landscape may diminish Labour’s ability to present a coherent national agenda despite retaining a parliamentary majority.
Upcoming Developments
Election results will be announced after Thursday’s ballots, followed by potential publication of a Welsh white paper on constitutional options and further analysis of Reform’s performance across the devolved nations.
