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Story summary
- Recent polls show SNP will miss 65-seat majority needed in the 7 May 2026 Scottish Parliament election, with Sir John Curtice warning that marginal constituencies could keep it short.
- YouGov and Survation project the SNP at 62 and 59 seats respectively, and Reform UK at 19 and 18 seats respectively.
- An Ipsos poll on the final campaign day gave the SNP 32 % constituency and 23 % regional votes, with Reform UK at 18 % regional.
