Full Breakdown
Trump’s Approval Rating Stays Flat After White House Correspondents’ Dinner Shooting
5/7/2026, 4:55:07 AM
Event Overview
On April 25 2026, gunfire broke out at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner in the Washington Hilton. President Donald Trump, First Lady Melania Trump, and Vice President JD Vance were present when 31-year-old Cole Thomas Allen rushed past security and fired a shotgun outside the ballroom, forcing the event’s cancellation. Allen was arrested.
Background
The dinner marked a rare public appearance for Trump, who had previously skipped the annual event. The attack revived concerns about security at gatherings and has been contrasted with the July 2024 Butler rally, where a shooting produced a noticeable rise in Trump’s approval.
Polling Data
National polls show little change in Trump’s support. The New York Times polling average recorded a dip from 39 % to 38 % after the shooting. Rasmussen Reports, a pollster generally favorable to Trump, reported a decline from 44 % the day after the incident to 41 % by May 6. The firm’s “approval index,” measuring strong approval versus strong disapproval, fell five points. Gasoline prices rose from $4.09 to $4.56 per gallon, adding economic pressure.
Official Statements & Responses
The New York Times poll summary noted the modest decline without linking it to any specific cause. Rasmussen emphasized the continued erosion of support despite the president’s presence at the dinner. The White House offered no direct comment on the polling results, and analysts noted the contrast with the 2024 rally’s boost.
Criticism & Opposition
Pro-Trump commentator Megyn Kelly warned, “You’re effed!” if the stagnant numbers persist, reflecting frustration among Trump’s base. Political experts who had wondered about a short-term boost after the shooting observed that the expected bounce failed to materialize, citing weak backing among independents.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
The New York Times average (38-39 %) and Rasmussen’s figures (41-44 %) differ, illustrating methodological variance. No poll has directly measured public reaction to the shooting, and demographic breakdowns remain unavailable.
Verbatim Quotes
- “fight, fight, fight” — Donald Trump, former presidential candidate (mouthed during 2024 rally)
- “You’re effed!” — Megyn Kelly, pro-Trump commentator
- “Trump’s approval rating was essentially unchanged in the days after the shooting, slipping from 39 percent to 38 percent, according to The New York Times polling average.” — The Independent, news outlet
