Full Breakdown
Italy-Azerbaijan Strategic Partnership Deepens After Prime Minister Meloni’s Baku Visit
5/7/2026, 8:17:50 AM
Meloni’s Baku Visit Marks a New Strategic Phase
On 4 May 2026 Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni became the first Italian premier to travel to Azerbaijan in 13 years. In a joint press conference with President Ilham Aliyev, the leaders announced a “permanent political coordination” mechanism that moves bilateral cooperation beyond ad-hoc rapprochement. The agenda focused on expanding natural-gas deliveries, deepening defence and advanced-technology collaboration, and launching a Business Forum in Baku in the second half of 2026.
Geopolitical Backdrop
Europe’s energy security has been strained by the war in Ukraine, the 2022 Russian invasion, and recent disruptions such as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Italy, the EU’s top importer of Azerbaijani energy, has framed Azerbaijan as a “certainty” amid growing instability. The visit follows the European Political Community summit in Yerevan, where Italy reaffirmed support for the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process and highlighted the South Caucasus as a strategic corridor linking Europe to Central Asia.
Quantitative Highlights
- Azerbaijan exported 9.5 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas to Italy in 2025, roughly 16 % of Italy’s gas demand and 17 % of its oil demand.
- Total gas delivered via the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) since commissioning equals 45.4 bcm.
- Planned TAP expansion to 20 bcm yr?¹ could raise Azerbaijan’s share of Italy’s gas market to 28 %, overtaking Algeria.
- Bilateral trade reached approximately $12 billion (? €10.2 billion) in 2025, making Italy Azerbaijan’s largest EU trading partner.
- Italian investment in Azerbaijan includes 130 companies, 23 of which are active in reconstruction projects in the liberated Karabakh region; the Azerbaijani State Oil Fund has invested about $3 billion in Italy.
Official Statements & Responses
Meloni stressed that “the more instability grows around us, the more important it is to strengthen the certainties we have,” positioning Azerbaijan as a bridge between Europe and Asia and pledging Italy’s role as a “privileged gateway” for Azerbaijani energy. She thanked Baku for facilitating the evacuation of Italian citizens from Iran and affirmed Italy’s full support for the Armenia-Azerbaijan normalization process.
Aliyev described the Italian market as “of primary importance for both oil and gas,” underscored the need to expand TAP, and called Italy a “strategic partner” with “political relations … at the highest level.” He highlighted the desire to increase the number of Italian firms operating in Azerbaijan and noted ongoing joint projects in aerospace, maritime security, and critical-infrastructure protection.
EU diplomat Kaja Kallas, meeting in Baku, signaled openness to a “more structured partnership” with Azerbaijan, linking the bilateral agenda to broader EU energy-security goals.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Sources differ on the exact trade figure: Euronews cites €10.2 billion, while the Operative Information Center reports $12 billion. The number of Italian companies active in Azerbaijan is given as 30 in some reports and 130 in others. No source provides a detailed breakdown of defence-industry contracts, leaving the scope of future military-technical cooperation unclear.
Verbatim Quotes
- “The more instability grows around us, the more important it is to strengthen the certainties we have — and the relationship between Italy and Azerbaijan is certainly one of those certainties,” — Giorgia Meloni, Prime Minister of Italy
- “For us, the Italian market is of primary importance for both oil and gas,” — Ilham Aliyev, President of Azerbaijan
- “I want to thank Azerbaijan and the president for how they ensured Italy could carry out the operations necessary to bring to safety so many Italian citizens who found themselves in danger in Iran,” — Giorgia Meloni
- “our political relations are at the highest level.” — Ilham Aliyev
- “Azerbaijani supplies have been “decisive” for Italy’s energy security since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.” — Giorgia Meloni
What’s Next
The 2026 Business Forum in Baku will aim to translate political coordination into concrete investment deals. Both sides have signaled intent to pursue TAP capacity upgrades, joint defence-technology projects, and expanded participation of Italian firms in Azerbaijan’s infrastructure and reconstruction programmes. Continued Italian advocacy for the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process is expected to shape regional connectivity initiatives throughout the year.
