Campaign Staffers Bet on Their Own Candidates Using Prediction Markets

A staffer on a statewide race received an unreleased poll showing their candidate ahead, compared it to odds on a prediction market, bought contracts, and sold them after the poll’s release, earning “thousands” of dollars. The staffer repeated the tactic after later internal polling confirmed a win.

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Election betting has been allowed since 2014 when the CFTC permitted limited contracts on PredictIt, a nonprofit. For-profit platforms Kalshi and Polymarket now host billions in political wagers. In February the CFTC issued guidance reaffirming its authority, while Congress has introduced bills to curb insider betting, none have passed.

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The staffers remain anonymous; operatives reported similar activity. CFTC veteran Jeff Le Riche and commissioner Kristin Johnson flagged regulatory gaps. Kalshi and Polymarket operate U.S. and offshore markets. CFTC commissioner Michael Selig stressed market integrity. Senate Republican Todd Young and Rep. Seth Moulton’s campaign manager Jeff Phaneuf voiced ethical concerns.

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Prediction markets handle billions in weekly wagers; Kalshi reports hosting billions in election contracts. Staffers claimed “thousands” earned and a $5,000 win. Kalshi recently fined and suspended three users for political insider trading. Polymarket traders have earned $300,000 on President Biden’s pardons and $553,000 on an Iran-related bet.

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Jeff Le Riche warned that using non-public information may violate Commodity Exchange Act. Kristin Johnson said CFTC lacks experience policing election positions and needs Congressional direction. Michael Selig emphasized protecting market integrity. Todd Young praised Senate rule barring Senators and staff from market trades; Jeff Phaneuf announced a ban on prediction-market activity in Rep. Moulton’s campaign.

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Legal scholars and watchdogs argue insider betting undermines electoral fairness and may constitute insider trading. Staffers described a “Wild West” environment with few rules. Lawmakers have called for clearer statutes to prohibit insiders from exploiting private polling data.

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No public CFTC enforcement actions against campaign insiders have been documented, leaving the Commodity Exchange Act's applicability uncertain. Senate rules bar elected officials and staff but not campaign workers, creating a regulatory gap. The CFTC has not yet tested its authority in election-related insider cases.

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• "Because you have all this information and knowledge that isn't publicly available yet, it's almost foolish not to bet on it before it's made public." — Anonymous staffer

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• "It's illegal or a violation of the Commodity Exchange Act if you have material, non-public information and you have a duty not to use that." — Jeff Le Riche, CFTC

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• "I don't believe that the CFTC has developed experience and expertise in policing election positions." — Kristin Johnson, CFTC commissioner

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• "Nothing is more important than protecting market integrity." — Michael Selig, CFTC commissioner

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Le Riche expects more CFTC enforcement as prediction markets expand. Congress continues to consider bipartisan bills to restrict insider betting. Kalshi’s recent suspensions suggest the platform may tighten compliance monitoring.

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