Israeli Court Charges Two Men Over Alleged War-Market Insider Trading

Israeli prosecutors charged Omer Ziv, a 30-year-old affiliate-marketing manager, and an unnamed reserve officer with bribery, security offences, obstruction of justice and, for Ziv, aggravated espionage. They allegedly used classified intelligence on Israeli strikes against Iran to bet on Polymarket, a prediction market, earning $152,000. Polymarket enables wagers on real-world events; accounts earned about $156,000 from Iran-Israel war bets June 2025–January 2026. Investigators linked four Polymarket accounts, a wallet and five NFT video clips to Ziv. The officer briefed Ziv on “Operation Roaring Lion” and later on Yemen strikes; his identity remains sealed.

The Guardian

In June 2025 Ziv opened a Polymarket market on an Israeli strike. On 12 June the major briefed him that “Operation Roaring Lion” would start before midnight, prompting Ziv to raise bets. Israeli jets later hit over 100 Tehran targets, netting $128,000. They placed three further bets during 12-day war, met in September for Yemen strikes, and warned each other before Ziv’s January 2026 arrest in Barcelona. A March 2026 court order lifted a gag on Ziv’s identity.

The Guardian

Prosecutors say the four Polymarket accounts earned $128,000 from the first strike bet and $152,000 in total in June 2025. Blockchain linked the accounts to a wallet holding five NFT video clips of Ziv. Indictment notes 200 Israeli jets struck 100 Tehran targets, killing 1,000+ and injuring 7,000+. Authorities have summoned 45 witnesses and will present classified material.

The Guardian

Major’s lawyers claim their client made “significant contributions to the security of the state” and allege investigative misconduct, arguing the case reflects selective enforcement. Ziv’s counsel has not commented. Analysts warn that prediction markets may incentivize leakage of classified intelligence, calling it a test of “war gambling” law. Columbia University’s Prof. Zohar Goshen cautioned that naming the major could endanger him. The indictment cites $152,000 in profits, while earlier reporting estimated $156,000, and the major’s rank and role remain sealed.

The Guardian

• “public hearings are the lifeblood of the democratic regime” — Judge, Tel Aviv court

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• “We are convinced that after these are presented, the case will end in a completely different way than when it was opened,” — Ran Cohen Rochverger, lawyer for the major

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• “Due to his alleged knowledge of military secrets and role in attacks, naming the major would put him in grave danger,” — Prof. Zohar Goshen, Columbia University

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• “It’s already happening.” — WhatsApp message from the major to Ziv on the night of the first strike

The Guardian

The defendants remain in custody pending trial. Prosecutors intend to introduce further classified evidence, while the defense plans to challenge the investigative methods. Observers note the case may prompt regulatory scrutiny of crypto-based prediction markets and shape future treatment of insider information in wartime.

The Guardian