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Story summary
- Johnson Associates expects 2026 Wall Street bonuses to be flat or slightly higher after a 9% rise to $49.2 billion in 2025.
- Bonuses may rise 10% in investment/commercial banking and vary from a 7.5% decline to a 10% increase in private-equity, private-credit, hedge-fund and asset-manager sectors.
- The Iran war that began on February 28 and high oil prices create geopolitical risk, while AI could cut headcount up to 15% in 2-3 years.
