Full Breakdown
Russia’s Escalating Assassination Campaign Targets Opponents Across Europe
5/8/2026, 3:26:00 AM
Escalating Campaign: Who, What, Where, When, How
Western intelligence officials from three European countries say Russia has intensified a coordinated series of targeted killings in Europe since President Vladimir Putin’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The campaign, described as “politically authorized,” focuses on Russian dissidents, Ukrainian supporters, and individuals linked to Western aid for Kyiv. Plots have been uncovered in France, Lithuania, Germany, Poland and Spain, involving surveillance, bomb placement and the use of cheap proxies recruited by Russian military intelligence.
Background: Russian Tactics and Prior Incidents
The strategy builds on a pattern of covert aggression that includes the 2018 nerve-agent poisoning of former spy Sergei Skripal in Salisbury, England, which prompted the expulsion of hundreds of Russian diplomats. Since the war began, Western officials have mapped 191 acts of sabotage, arson and disruption across Europe, attributing many to Russian-linked proxies.
Key Targets and Their Stories
- Vladimir Osechkin – Russian activist living in Biarritz, France, who exposes prison abuses. Court documents show four Dagestani men surveilled his home in April 2025, planning an assassination. Osechkin has been under French police protection since 2022.
- Ruslan Gabbasov – Advocate for Bashkortostan’s independence residing in Lithuania. He discovered an Apple AirTag on his car in February 2025 and was later warned that a gun-armed killer had been detained near his house.
- Valdas Bartkevicius – Lithuanian activist supporting Ukraine who survived a mailbox-bomb plot in March 2025. He described the threat as “social death.”
- Additional plots targeted a German weapons-company head, a Ukrainian military official, and a 2024 alleged scheme in Poland to assassinate President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. A Russian helicopter pilot who defected was killed in Spain, with Russian operatives suspected.
Timeline of Recent Plots
- 2022 – Osechkin placed under protection after threats.
- 2024 – Polish arrest of a man linked to a Zelenskyy assassination plot.
- Feb 2025 – Gabbasov’s AirTag discovery.
- Mar 2025 – Bartkevicius bomb-mailbox plot.
- Apr 2025 – Surveillance of Osechkin’s residence.
- 2025 (ongoing) – Lithuanian prosecutors charge 13 individuals from at least seven countries; overall, >=20 people have been detained or charged in Europe in the past year.
Data & Statistics
- 191 sabotage-related incidents linked to Russia since the war’s start.
- 13 suspects charged in Lithuania; >=20 individuals detained, charged or identified across Europe in the last twelve months.
- Proxies recruited from Russia’s Dagestan region and other locales, often with criminal backgrounds.
Official Statements & Responses
A senior European intelligence official asserted that the campaign is “not by accident or chance” and reflects direct political authorization. French authorities maintain Osechkin’s protection, while Lithuanian police offered Gabbasov and Bartkevicius the option to disappear—a proposal both rejected. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov declined to comment, stating he saw “no need” to do so. Russian officials continue to deny involvement in any of the plots.
Criticism, Denials, and Gaps
Russian authorities’ blanket denial contrasts with detailed court documents and prosecutor statements linking the operations to Russian military intelligence. No public evidence directly confirms the chain of command, leaving a gap between alleged proxy activity and official state responsibility.
Verbatim Quotes
- “This campaign is not by accident or chance,” — Senior European intelligence official
- “If it weren’t for them, I probably would have been killed,” — Vladimir Osechkin, activist
- “I can’t betray them all by simply disappearing, especially out of fear,” — Ruslan Gabbasov, Bashkortostan activist
- “Even if you thwart an operation once, you still need to be ready in case they strike again.” — European intelligence official
- “social death.” — Valdas Bartkevicius, Lithuanian activist
Implications for European Security
The campaign aims to intimidate Kremlin opponents abroad and to divert law-enforcement resources. The reliance on proxies complicates attribution, while the repeated foiling of plots suggests heightened vigilance but also persistent risk for targeted individuals.
What’s Next
Western intelligence services plan continued monitoring of suspected proxy networks and increased protective measures for at-risk dissidents. Ongoing investigations in France and Lithuania are expected to yield further indictments, while European governments debate coordinated legal frameworks to counter state-sponsored extraterritorial violence.
