Back to today’s briefing

Story perspectives

Toyota Slashes Profit Forecast, Cites $4.3B Iran War Cost

5/9/2026

46 4 Full Breakdown

Summary

Toyota Faces War

Toyota said the Iran war will cost it about $4.3 billion this year.
Toyota reported a 50% drop in quarterly earnings to March 31, 2026 and operating profit of 569.4 billion yen, down from 1.1 trillion yen.
Toyota now expects full-year operating profit of about 3 trillion yen, below the 4.59 trillion yen median.
Toyota saw shares close 2.2% lower, the lowest since mid-October, and pledged to cut waste and target a $24 billion profit.

Summary

Toyota Profit Push

CFO Yoichi Miyazaki said after-sales will become Toyota’s biggest profit source.
Suppliers face aluminum and resin shortages, with Japan importing 70 % of its aluminum from the Middle East and expecting 590,000 tons in 2025.
Former CFO Kenta Kon became CEO in April to push profitability.
Production rose in March despite a sales dip, prompting Toyota to forecast ¥51 trillion net sales, below analysts’ ¥53.25 trillion estimate.

Summary

Trump Reopens Strait

President Donald Trump said deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is on table amid U.S. gasoline prices.
Toyota reported a sharp fall in Middle East sales in March after war-related shipment disruptions.
Toyota noted 70 % of Japan’s aluminium imports come from the Middle East, exposing supply-chain risk.
Chief accounting officer Takanori Azuma said Trump’s tariffs cost Toyota ¥1.38 trillion in the year to March.

History

Historical Context

Japan’s 1973 oil embargo—when OAPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, cut shipments and oil prices jumped from $3 to $12 per barrel—forced the country, which imported 90% of its oil, to slash industrial oil use by 20% and shift toward fuel-efficient cars. That shock helped Japanese automakers like Toyota thrive, but today the firm reports a $4.3 billion loss tied to Middle-East supply disruptions.

1 of 4

Toyota Faces War

Toyota said the Iran war will cost it about $4.3 billion this year.
Toyota reported a 50% drop in quarterly earnings to March 31, 2026 and operating profit of 569.4 billion yen, down from 1.1 trillion yen.
Toyota now expects full-year operating profit of about 3 trillion yen, below the 4.59 trillion yen median.
Toyota saw shares close 2.2% lower, the lowest since mid-October, and pledged to cut waste and target a $24 billion profit.

1 / 4