European Aviation Emissions Exceed Pre-COVID Levels in 2025

European departing flights emitted 195 Mt of CO2 in 2025, a 2 % rise over 2019, while Ryanair alone produced 16.6 Mt, matching a small nation’s output, after carrying 200 million passengers.

The Guardian

The EU ETS taxes only intra-EU flights, leaving long-haul services untaxed. Low-cost carriers, especially Ryanair, have driven passenger growth. Transport & Environment (T&E) analyst Giacomo Miele authored the analysis.

The Guardian

Ryanair carried 200 million passengers in 2025 (up from 140 million in 2019). ETS carbon prices average €50 / t for Ryanair, €20 / t for Lufthansa. Jet fuel price spikes add €90 per long-haul passenger; the SAF mandate adds €3. Ryanair reports 64 g CO2 per passenger-km. An ETS expansion could raise €4.1 bn by 2030.

The Guardian

Rising aviation emissions threaten EU climate goals and increase warming, including contrail effects. Higher fuel costs have raised ticket prices, tying travel to fossil-fuel use. ETS revenue could fund SAF and contrail mitigation.

The Guardian

Ryanair’s spokesperson said growth came with lower fares and newer, fuel-efficient aircraft, reducing emissions per passenger. The airline calls the ETS “completely discredited” for excluding long-haul flights and notes it has the lowest CO2 per passenger-km despite higher total emissions.

The Guardian

T&E analyst Giacomo Miele criticised the ETS’s narrow scope, calling the emissions rise “a clear signal that the industry has no intention of cleaning up its act.” He urged extending the market to all flights to fund SAF and contrail mitigation, noting industry lobbying to weaken taxes during the Middle East crisis.

The Guardian

Ryanair says per-passenger emissions are falling, yet total emissions rose. It dismisses ETS data as “completely discredited,” while T&E points to the exclusion of long-haul flights, leaving reliable data for those routes scarce.

The Guardian

• “Ticket prices are rising because of Europe’s reliance on fossil fuels, not because of the climate measures intended to steer the sector away from them.” — Giacomo Miele, analyst, Transport & Environment

The Guardian

• “Aviation emissions hitting a new high is a clear signal that the industry has no intention of cleaning up its act.” — Giacomo Miele, analyst, Transport & Environment

The Guardian

• “All of this growth takes place at lower fares but on new fuel-efficient aircraft, so our GHG per passenger are falling.” — Ryanair spokesperson

The Guardian

• “The ETS emissions figures were ‘completely discredited’ since they excluded flights operated by airlines who were ‘indefensibly exempted from their fair share of enviro taxes by Europe’s discriminatory ETS system.’” — Ryanair spokesperson

The Guardian

EU legislators are considering extending the ETS to all departing flights, a change projected to quadruple revenue by 2030 and finance SAF production and contrail-reduction programmes.

The Guardian