Great Plains Wheat Harvest Threatened by Heat, Drought and Freeze

The 2025-2026 wheat crop across Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Colorado and Nebraska faced record March heat, a warm erratic winter, severe drought and a late-season freeze, leaving many fields with only a few bushels per acre.

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Kansas, the top wheat producer, logged its second-warmest March since records began, with temperatures 10-11 °F above normal, deepening drought. Climate Central’s Shel Winkley says such warmth would be “rare or almost virtually impossible” without climate change.

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Yield estimates show Nielsen’s 2,500-acre farm may yield just two bushels per acre, far below the typical 40-50. Kansas output is projected at 200-220 million bushels, versus a ten-year average of 317 million. USDA rates about half of Kansas and Oklahoma wheat as very poor to poor, and notes wheat acreage is the lowest since 1919.

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USDA notes poor condition ratings and historic low planting acreage, reflecting market pressure as input costs now exceed grain prices. Climate Central’s Shel Winkley links the March heat to climate change, and K-State agronomist Jeanne Falk Jones warns an upcoming freeze could damage wheat that is a month ahead. USDA’s early acreage forecast predicts the lowest wheat planting area since 1919, while university experts project a 15 % national production decline but have not released a final figure. The May-June freeze’s impact on yields remains uncertain, leaving a data gap.

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Merrill Nielsen received a text: “Crop will be terminated.” Vance Ehmke said a brief rain helped but “we’re so far behind that it’s not even funny now.” Barry Guyer noted, “It won’t get above three inches.” Ben Palen observed his wheat never entered full dormancy, depleting subsoil moisture early.

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Ben Palen warns, “Climate change is an increasing concern … because you try to plan as best you can … but it was a wild card, when you got that cold for two nights in a row at just exactly the worst time for the wheat.” Diesel and fertilizer costs, with low grain prices, make salvage decisions financially untenable.

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• “Crop will be terminated.” — Merrill Nielsen

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• “It wasn’t just a weird, wonky March. We understand there’s something bigger here.” — Shel Winkley

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• “That helped a whole bunch, but we’re so far behind that it’s not even funny now.” — Vance Ehmke

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• “Climate change is an increasing concern … because you try to plan as best you can … but it was a wild card, when you got that cold for two nights in a row at just exactly the worst time for the wheat.” — Ben Palen

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May-June forecasts call for below-average rainfall across Kansas and Nebraska, raising the risk of further yield loss. USDA will continue weekly crop-condition updates, and analysts expect reduced planting and possible acreage abandonment to keep U.S. wheat output below recent averages, tightening grain markets.

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