Full Breakdown
Global Food Prices Hit Three-Year High in April Amid Iran Conflict and Oil Market Disruptions
5/9/2026, 11:59:23 AM
April Surge in the FAO Food Price Index
The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said its Food Price Index rose to 130.7 points in April, a 1.6 % increase from March and the highest level since February 2023. This marks the third consecutive month of growth.
Geopolitical and Energy Drivers
FAO chief economist Maximo Torero linked the jump in vegetable-oil prices to the Iran war and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Disrupted energy supplies have lifted fuel costs, spurring demand for biofuels made from oil-rich crops such as soy, sunflower, rapeseed and palm.
Key Price Movements
Vegetable-oil prices rose 5.9 % month-on-month, the strongest gain since July 2022, driven by higher soy, sunflower, rapeseed and palm oil. Cereal prices edged up 0.8 % month-on-month (0.4 % year-on-year) as wheat and maize faced weather risks, higher fertilizer costs and biofuel demand. Meat prices hit a record, up 1.2 % on limited cattle supplies in Brazil, while sugar fell 4.7 % on ample output from Brazil, China and Thailand. The FAO lifted its 2025 global cereal production forecast to 3.040 billion metric tons, a 6 % rise, and expects reduced wheat acreage in 2026 as farmers shift to less fertilizer-intensive crops.
Implications and FAO View
Higher energy and fertilizer costs, together with rising biofuel demand, raise the risk that producer-level price gains will pass to consumers. Torero warned that if disruptions exceed 90 days, the chance of a food crisis in late 2026 and 2027 could rise sharply. He added that cereal supplies remain adequate thanks to inventories, and that the vegetable-oil surge reflects higher energy costs and biofuel incentives, with price changes measured at the producer level and retail impacts likely to lag.
Verbatim Quotes
- “But the situation will change very quickly when the rise in raw material and energy prices begins to be passed down the line, and then consumers will feel it, - stated FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero.” — Maximo Torero, FAO Chief Economist.
- “If this continues until the 90th day, the probability of a food crisis in late 2026 and in 2027 will increase significantly, - said Torero.” — Maximo Torero, FAO Chief Economist.
- “FAO Chief Economist Máximo Torero said vegetable oil prices are being driven by elevated energy costs that are in turn raising demand for biofuels made using organic materials, such as oil-rich plants.” — Maximo Torero, FAO Chief Economist.
- “The agri-food sector remains resilient for now, as products already produced are being sold.” — Maximo Torero, FAO Chief Economist.
Outlook and Monitoring
The FAO will keep publishing monthly price data and track the Iran conflict’s effect on energy and fertilizer supplies. Policymakers are urged to monitor vegetable-oil and cereal markets and the agency’s 2026 wheat-planting outlook for early signs of broader food-security stress.
