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April Jobs Jump 115K, June Rate Cut Odds Slip

5/10/2026

44 5 Full Breakdown

Summary

Payrolls Exceed Forecast

April nonfarm payrolls rose 115,000, beating the 62,000 forecast, with unemployment at 4.3%.
Hourly earnings rose 0.3% and wage growth hit 3.6%, below the 3.8% expectation.
The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.38% as the S&P 500 gained 0.8%.
Silver traded near $80.70, gold futures at $4,721.76, WTI at $95.14 and Brent at $101.48.
The CME FedWatch Tool showed a 6% chance of a June rate cut, lower than expectations.

Summary

Consumer Sentiment Falls

Consumer sentiment fell, down nearly 8% from a year earlier, as labor-force participation dropped, shrinking the labor force and lowering labor’s share of national income.
Black unemployment is twice the white rate while Hispanic unemployment has risen, widening racial gaps.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell will leave the chair but stay on the board while new chair Kevin Warsh will keep rates steady as the Federal Reserve stays divided.

History

Historical Context

In September 2008, the Reserve Primary Fund’s price fell below $1, triggering $0.5 trillion of money-market sell orders and prompting Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson to propose the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program. Simultaneously, the Federal Reserve doubled its Term Auction Facility to $300 billion and expanded swap lines, a liquidity response that shapes today’s Fed policy as Jerome Powell prepares to depart.

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Payrolls Exceed Forecast

April nonfarm payrolls rose 115,000, beating the 62,000 forecast, with unemployment at 4.3%.
Hourly earnings rose 0.3% and wage growth hit 3.6%, below the 3.8% expectation.
The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.38% as the S&P 500 gained 0.8%.
Silver traded near $80.70, gold futures at $4,721.76, WTI at $95.14 and Brent at $101.48.
The CME FedWatch Tool showed a 6% chance of a June rate cut, lower than expectations.

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