Full Breakdown
Southern States Accelerate Redistricting After Supreme Court’s Callais Decision
5/9/2026, 9:31:25 PM
Tennessee’s New Congressional Lines
Governor Bill Lee (R) signed a law on May 7 that replaces the state’s single majority-Black district with three Republican-leaning districts, effectively eliminating Rep. Steve Cohen’s (D-TN) seat. The plan “cracks” Memphis, merging communities up to 200 miles apart, a change Cohen called “insane” on X.
Legal and Political Backdrop
The move follows the U.S. Supreme Court’s April 29 ruling in *Louisiana v. Callais*, which narrowed the Voting Rights Act’s protection for majority-minority districts. The decision has spurred redistricting drives in Tennessee, Florida, Alabama, Louisiana, South Carolina and other Southern states, all seeking to reshape congressional maps before the 2026 midterms.
Key Players in the Redistricting Push
- Bill Lee – Tennessee governor, signed the new map.
- Ron DeSantis – Florida governor, defended his state’s map as a response to population growth.
- Steve Cohen – Democratic representative of Tennessee’s former 9th district, vocal opponent.
- Viet Shelton – DCCC spokesperson, warned against artificial gerrymandering.
- David McIntosh – Club for Growth president, urged rapid redistricting.
- Norm Eisen and Marc Elias – Democratic election lawyers leading lawsuits in Florida.
- Amy Keith (Common Cause) and the NAACP – filing challenges in Florida and Tennessee respectively.
Numbers at Stake
- Tennessee: Current delegation 8 R-1 D; projected after redrawing 9 R-0 D.
- Florida: Current 20 R-8 D; new map could shift to 24 R-4 D.
- Texas: Potential gain of five seats for Republicans, raising its delegation from 25 R-12 D to 30 R-8 D.
- Issue One estimates the GOP could net an additional 8-12 seats nationwide; Democracy Docket projects 16-18 Republican gains from the same set of states.
Official Statements & Responses
Governor Lee framed the Tennessee law as a routine “special session” adjustment. DeSantis argued the Florida map reflects “explosive growth” and corrects a previously unconstitutional racial gerrymander. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, via Viet Shelton, asserted that “voters will get the final say in November.” Issue One’s policy director, Michael McNulty, warned the changes “give the green light to politicians to weaken the voices of voters of color.” Club for Growth’s David McIntosh urged states to be “proactive on redistricting and move quickly.”
Opposition and Legal Challenges
The NAACP filed an immediate lawsuit in Tennessee seeking an injunction. In Florida, Common Cause, the Equal Ground Education Fund, the UCLA Voting Rights Project and the Campaign Legal Center allege violations of the state’s Fair Districts Amendment. Rep. Kathy Castor (D-FL) described the process as “locked out of the public” and “disrespectful” to Tampa-area voters. Issue One’s McNulty labeled the effort a “power grab” that could disenfranchise minority voters. Conservative legal analyst Hans von Spakovsky warned that the lawsuits aim primarily to “delay” implementation.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Issue One’s analysis predicts a GOP advantage of 8-12 seats, while Democracy Docket forecasts 16-18 seats, reflecting divergent assumptions about how aggressively states will redraw maps. The ultimate impact of pending lawsuits in Tennessee, Florida, Alabama and Louisiana remains uncertain, leaving a gap in definitive seat-count projections.
Verbatim Quotes
- “In a post to X on Wednesday as a special session of the state legislature kicked off, Cohen said the proposal would jam people living more than 200 miles apart into the same district.” — Rep. Steve Cohen, Democrat, Tennessee
- “No matter how hard they try, Republicans will not be able to artificially gerrymander themselves into the majority in 2026. Voters will get the final say in November,” — Viet Shelton, DCCC spokesperson
- “We are very concerned that it essentially gives the green light to politicians to just weaken the voices of voters of color,” — Michael McNulty, policy director, Issue One
- “States should be proactive on redistricting and move quickly," said David McIntosh, president of the Trump-aligned Club for Growth.” — David McIntosh, president, Club for Growth
- “We know that as a state under Supreme Court rulings federally, we have a right to make partisan gerrymandering illegal in our state, and we did here in the state of Florida.” — Amy Keith, Common Cause
Looking Ahead: Litigation and the 2026 Midterms
All challenged maps must survive court review before the June candidate-qualifying deadline and the August 18 primaries. Continued lawsuits in Tennessee, Florida, Alabama and Louisiana are expected to shape the final district lines. Regardless of outcomes, the redistricting wave sets a precedent that could influence the broader 2028 election cycle, prompting additional legal and legislative battles over partisan mapmaking.
