Full Breakdown
War in the Middle East Drives Fertilizer and Fuel Price Surge, Threatening Global Food Production
5/10/2026, 4:13:14 AM
Conflict-Driven Supply Disruption
The U.S.–Israeli military action against Iran has halted fertilizer shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for roughly one-third of the world’s fertilizer supply. Simultaneously, oil prices have risen about 50 % since the war began, raising diesel costs for agricultural machinery worldwide.
Data on Input Cost Inflation
- Fertilizer prices climbed from ? $400 / ton in January to > $600 / ton this week (USDA).
- The American Farm Bureau Federation warns that ? 70 % of U.S. farmers may be unable to afford required fertilizer.
- Farm bankruptcies rose 46 % between 2024 and 2025.
- Off-road diesel in New York peaked at $5 / gallon, up from $2.65 / gallon a year earlier.
- 86 % of U.S. farms are small family operations (gross income <= $350 k).
- Black-operated farms: 55 % earned < $5 k in 2022; 200 foreclosure notices pending (National Black Farmers Association).
- The Strait of Hormuz carries about 20 % of global oil and one-fifth of liquefied natural gas.
Impact on Farmers in Thailand and the United States
Thai rice farmer Saithong Jamjai estimates planting costs of $33 k against a projected $22 k harvest revenue. In Illinois, John Bartman reports fertilizer shortages that threaten profitability for 70 % of peers. New York dairy farmer Blake Gendebien faces diesel at $5 / gallon for 20 000 gal needed each season. Colorado’s Sam Frost delayed field preparation after off-road diesel rose from $3.13 to $4.43 / gal. North Carolina cotton grower Julius Tillery shortened his planting window to curb fuel use. Virginia cattle and grain producer John Boyd warns that rising fuel could trigger the “last straw” for Black farms, with nearly 200 foreclosure notices already filed.
Canadian Grocers Feel the Ripple
Winnipeg’s Ahmed Rathore (Grocery Bazar) cites a 40 % rise in product costs; Bernice Fasina (African Foodways Market) reports a 50 % jump in air-freight rates, pushing a one-ton shipment from $10 k to $16 k. Dalhousie’s Sylvain Charlebois notes that the oil surge will eventually translate into higher grocery prices after a typical three-month lag.
Official Statements & Responses
- USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack (quoted by Mike Rollins) says the war’s impact is “a little blip” in the Middle East.
- Mike Rollins also asserts that “America has plenty of fertilizer.”
- Senator Marco Rubio counters that only Iranian fertilizer is stranded in the Persian Gulf.
- USDA data confirms the U.S. produces ~9 % of global fertilizer and remains a net importer.
- Rollins is considering reviving the $900 million Fertilizer Production Expansion Program eliminated under the previous administration.
Criticism & Opposition
Farmers describe the cost surge as “a massive cost for farmers that are already barely getting by.” Black farmers highlight systemic credit gaps and the cancellation of a $300 million equity program. Gendebien argues that ending the tariff war would more quickly alleviate pressure than waiting for federal grants.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Sources differ on whether the fertilizer shortage stems from a genuine domestic deficit or merely from disrupted Iranian shipments. No definitive timeline exists for the reinstatement of the Fertilizer Production Expansion Program, and precise numbers of farms facing imminent foreclosure remain unverified.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Because of surging prices, driven by the war, of fuel, fertilizer, plastics and other necessities, planting and harvesting will cost her at least $33,000, she said.” — Saithong Jamjai, rice farmer, Suphan Buri, Thailand
- “it’s just another straw that breaks the camel’s back,” — John Bartman, farmer, Illinois, USA
- “These rising costs are hitting us at the wrong time here in the north country in New York,” — Blake Gendebien, dairy farmer, Lisbon, New York
- “I can’t afford to plant crops in bad climates, so the production window becomes smaller.” — Julius Tillery, cotton farmer, North Carolina
- “You can say that every day the price is increasing,” — Ahmed Rathore, store supervisor, Grocery Bazar, Winnipeg
- “We have almost 200 pending Black farmer farm foreclosure notices,” — John Boyd, president, National Black Farmers Association, Virginia
What’s Next
The USDA may revive the $900 million Fertilizer Production Expansion Program, while Congress prepares a new farm bill. Stakeholders are urging an end to the tariff war and increased staffing at the Natural Resources Conservation Service to improve grant access for affected farms.
