Pacers' Draft Lottery Crossroads

The 2026 NBA draft lottery on Sunday set the order. Indiana, with the second-worst record (19-63), has a 14 % chance at No. 1 and a 52 % chance to finish in the top four. The Los Angeles Clippers, who hold Indiana’s 2026 pick, have a 1.5 % chance at No. 1 and a 7 % chance to enter the top four.

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In February, the Clippers sent center Ivica Zubac, forward Bennedict Mathurin, guard Isaiah Jackson and a 2029 first-rounder to Indiana for a package that included this year’s pick, protected for top four. If Indiana lands in the top four, the Clippers receive an unprotected 2031 pick; otherwise, the 2026 pick goes to Los Angeles.

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Key participants: the Indiana Pacers, Los Angeles Clippers, center Ivica Zubac, Western and Eastern Conference executives, and NBA Commissioner Adam Silver.

Pacers Draft Lottery Scenarios Explained: Owe The Clippers Now or Later?

The NBA confirmed the lottery odds—Indiana has a 14 % chance at No. 1 and a 52 % chance to finish in the top four; the Clippers have a 1.5 % chance at No. 1 and a 7 % chance to break into top four. The league noted the February trade includes a 2026 pick protected for top four and an unprotected 2031 first-rounder if met. No comment from the Pacers’ front office was recorded.

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Executives said teams “decide to sit players, deciding to lose… you can get incredibly lucky. Or you can get hosed,” and called the situation “a nightmare for the league… the rich keep getting richer,” underscoring concerns about competitive balance.

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• “It’s going to be league-changing stuff,” — Western Conference executive

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• “Every draft is, but there has been a lot of focus on this one, a lot of teams deciding to sit players, deciding to lose and it is all because of this, because you want the ping-pong balls coming out in your favor. You can get incredibly lucky. Or you can get hosed.” — Western Conference executive

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• “That’s the nightmare for the league,” — Eastern Conference executive

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• “It’s a nightmare for Adam Silver because the rich keep getting richer. But it’s a bigger nightmare for the rest of us because, how do you keep trying to compete with a team that is so good and also sitting on so many assets?” — Eastern Conference executive

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All sources agree on the odds and trade mechanics, but the exact protections on the 2031 pick are not detailed, and the Pacers have not publicly stated their preference.

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If Indiana lands a top-four selection, it could greatly sweeten an offer while the Clippers gain a valuable 2031 pick. A fifth- or sixth-place finish would give Los Angeles the 2026 pick now, reshaping both rebuilds. The outcome will also affect the trade market, as Milwaukee may leverage a top-four slot in Giannis Antetokounmpo negotiations.

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