Full Breakdown
US-China Rare-Earths Deal Remains Active Ahead of May Summit
5/11/2026, 1:05:26 AM
Core Event
The rare-earths trade pact signed between the United States and China in November 2025 remains active, with no set expiration date. President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet in Beijing on May 14-15, where the agreement is expected to be a key agenda item.
Background & Terms
The November 2025 agreement suspended Chinese export controls on critical minerals and granted general export licences in exchange for a 10 % reduction in U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods. It also required China to purchase over 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans and to curb fentanyl exports. The pact followed an October 2025 meeting in South Korea where Trump and Xi agreed to pause a tariff-escalation war.
Data & Trade Flow
By March 2026, China’s rare-earth magnet exports were up 8.2 % year-over-year globally, while shipments destined for the United States fell in the same period. The 10 % tariff cut remains in force, but new U.S. procurement rules slated for January 2027 will prohibit Chinese-sourced rare earths from defense supply chains.
Official Statements & Responses
Senior U.S. officials said the agreement “doesn’t expire yet” and that any decision on an extension will be announced “at the appropriate time.” Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva emphasized that Brazil’s rare-earth reserves are open to any investor, noting a new regulatory framework treats critical minerals as a sovereign asset and that Brazil aims to become the primary beneficiary of its own rare-earth wealth.
Criticism & Opposition
Analysts point to the decline in U.S.-bound rare-earth shipments despite overall export growth, questioning whether Beijing fully complies with the agreement’s spirit. Critics argue that the lack of transparent data on Chinese deliveries undermines confidence in the pact’s ability to stabilize supply for U.S. manufacturers.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Sources differ on the scale of China’s compliance: global rare-earth magnet exports rose, yet U.S.-direct shipments fell, creating a data gap. Officials have not clarified the timeline or conditions for a potential extension, leaving uncertainty about the deal’s future.
What’s Next
The May 14-15 summit in Beijing will address the U.S.–Israeli war on Iran, trade, Taiwan, and rare-earth supply issues. Observers expect a possible announcement on extending the pact, while the January 2027 procurement rule signals a shift toward domestic sourcing for defense applications.
Verbatim Quotes
- “It's still in effect. It doesn't expire yet,” — Senior U.S. official, May 10
- “I'm confident we'll announce any potential extension at the appropriate time.” — Senior U.S. official, May 10
- “We have no preference. What we want is to share with whoever wants to invest in Brazil,” — President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, press conference
- “With rare earths , we are going to change our behaviour. We want Brazil to be the big winner from this wealth that nature gave us,” — President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, press conference
