Full Breakdown
Ed Yardeni Raises S&P 500 Year-End Target to 8,250 Amid Earnings-Led Meltup
5/11/2026, 6:27:48 AM
Core Forecast Update
Yardeni Research President Ed Yardeni lifted his 2026 year-end S&P 500 target to 8,250, up from 7,700. The revision adds roughly 11.5 % to the index level from the previous Friday close and follows an 8 % gain in the S&P 500 year-to-date. Yardeni’s projection now exceeds the forecasts of Oppenheimer (8,100), Deutsche Bank (8,000), Morgan Stanley (7,800), Citigroup (7,700), JPMorgan (7,600) and Goldman Sachs (7,600).
Background & Market Context
Yardeni has framed the outlook as part of a “Roaring 2020s” narrative that began in the summer of 2020. He attributes the bullish stance to a rapid rise in consensus earnings expectations, which he says has driven an earnings-led meltup. The U.S. economy’s rebound from the COVID-19 pandemic, its navigation of supply shocks from Russia’s war in Ukraine, aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes, and the legacy of the Trump-era trade war are cited as factors that have reinforced resilience.
Data & Projections
- Earnings per share (large-cap): $330 for 2026 (up from $310), $375 for 2027 (up from $350).
- Revenue per share (S&P 500): $2,200 for 2026 and $2,300 for 2027.
- Probability the Roaring 2020s continue: 80 % (up from 60 %).
- Recession odds: 20 %.
- Long-term target: 10,000 for the S&P 500 by the end of 2029, with a note that it “might arrive ahead of schedule.”
Official Statements & Market Reactions
Yardeni emphasized that the economy’s resilience underpins his earnings assumptions and that the rapid rise in earnings expectations has been unprecedented. He noted that the market is already pricing much of his optimism, yet he maintains confidence in the upward trajectory. JPMorgan, which had cut its target to 7,200 earlier in the year, later raised its view, aligning with the broader upward trend among forecasters.
Criticism & Opposition
A split has emerged between Wall Street analysts, who generally support the bullish outlook, and energy-sector experts warning that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, oil inventories are dwindling, and renewed fighting could trigger stagflation. These experts caution that a sharp contraction in oil supplies could force central banks to hike rates further, prompting “bond vigilantes” to push yields higher.
Conflicting Forecasts & Gaps
While Yardeni projects an 8,250 year-end level, other major firms maintain targets ranging from 7,600 to 8,100, reflecting divergent views on earnings sustainability and geopolitical risk. The sources do not provide consensus on the timeline for reopening the Strait of Hormuz or the durability of the current ceasefire, leaving a gap in forward-looking risk assessment.
Verbatim Quotes
- “We’ve never seen consensus earnings expectations rise so quickly for the current and coming years as they have in recent months,” — Ed Yardeni, President, Yardeni Research
- “The result has been an earnings-led meltup in the stock market.” — Ed Yardeni, President, Yardeni Research
- “Our key assumption is that the economy will remain resilient, and so will earnings,” — Ed Yardeni, President, Yardeni Research
- “Nevertheless, for now, we are sticking with our 10,000 target for the S&P 500 by the end of 2029,” — Ed Yardeni, President, Yardeni Research
- “It might arrive ahead of schedule.” — Ed Yardeni, President, Yardeni Research
What’s Next
Investors will watch upcoming earnings releases, the status of the ceasefire in the Middle East, and oil-supply dynamics for signs that could prompt Yardeni or other forecasters to adjust their targets before the 2029 horizon.
