Story perspectives

California Gasoline Outlook Six Weeks, Prices Expected to Climb

5/11/2026

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Summary

Story summary

California officials said six-week gasoline outlook is a limit, not a deadline.
Siva Gunda said inventories, shipments and refinery capacity will meet demand for 4-6 weeks.
Gasoline costs $6.17 a gallon and diesel $7.48, prices analysts expect to rise after the horizon.
Forty percent of California’s oil is produced in-state or Alaska, with 29% of 2025 imports from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, limiting exposure to Middle-East disruptions.

History

Historical Context

During the October 1973 OAPEC oil embargo, the United States saw gasoline prices jump about 43 %—from roughly 38 cents to 55 cents per gallon—and long lines at pumps, prompting Nixon’s Project Independence and the creation of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The same supply-tightening pattern, now echoed by California Energy Commission official Siva Gunda, underlies today’s refinery-capacity constraints.

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Story summary

California officials said six-week gasoline outlook is a limit, not a deadline.
Siva Gunda said inventories, shipments and refinery capacity will meet demand for 4-6 weeks.
Gasoline costs $6.17 a gallon and diesel $7.48, prices analysts expect to rise after the horizon.
Forty percent of California’s oil is produced in-state or Alaska, with 29% of 2025 imports from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, limiting exposure to Middle-East disruptions.

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