Canadians Avoid U.S. Cities Amid Immigration Enforcement and Tariffs

A University of Toronto team used a cell-phone tracking tool to monitor Canadian devices entering U.S. metros from 1 April 2024 to 31 March 2026. The data show a 42 % drop, far above the 25 % decline reported by official border counts. Declines appear in New York, New Hampshire, Vermont, Las Vegas, Walt Disney World and Florida winter-recreation sites.

The Guardian

The second Trump administration featured stricter immigration enforcement, border-security operations and rhetoric about making Canada “the 51st state.” The United States also imposed tariffs on Canadian goods, especially automobiles, adding economic pressure that researchers link to reduced travel.

The Guardian

• Cell-phone data show a 42 % median decline (April 2024-March 2026) versus an official border decline of ~25 %.

The Guardian

• City-level drops include San Francisco, Houston, Grand Rapids (Michigan).

The Guardian

• Return migration: Canadian-resident trips from the U.S. fell 25 % in 2025; U.S. trips to Canada fell 7.5 % the same year.

The Guardian

• The tool captures freight traffic and temporary residents, which official counts miss.

The Guardian

The 42 % decline exceeds the official 25 % figure, prompting measurement questions. Researchers suggest two explanations: freight-related device movements not recorded at checkpoints, and detection of Canadians temporarily residing in the U.S. who later returned. No independent verification is provided.

The Guardian

Karen Chapple, director of the School of Cities at the University of Toronto, said the sharp drop in visits to large metropolitan economies reflects broader economic uncertainty on both sides of the border. She noted that high-tech and financial hubs such as San Francisco and Houston are seeing reduced tourism and business travel, and that the auto-industry link between Grand Rapids and Ontario has weakened after U.S. tariffs on Canadian vehicles.

The Guardian

Border towns that rely on Canadian shoppers face revenue loss as travel declines. Reduced business trips may affect technology, automotive and tourism sectors, reshaping regional supply chains. The gap between cell-phone and official data highlights challenges in monitoring cross-border mobility, influencing trade and immigration policy.

The Guardian

• “the marked decline in visits to large metropolitan economies” — Karen Chapple, Director, School of Cities, University of Toronto

The Guardian

• “High-tech and financial centers like San Francisco and Houston appear to be experiencing reductions not only in tourists but also in business-related travel, reflecting changing travel preferences due to broader economic uncertainties on both sides of the border,” — Karen Chapple, Director, School of Cities, University of Toronto

The Guardian

• “There used to be a lot of back and forth between the two places” — Karen Chapple, Director, School of Cities, University of Toronto

The Guardian

• “not only Canadians crossing the border, but also Canadians living temporarily in the US, suggesting that the decrease in activity may reflect return migration to Canada” — University of Toronto research team

The Guardian