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Full Breakdown

May 10 Solar Flare and CME May Brush Earth, Raising Minor Geomagnetic Storm and Aurora Chances

5/12/2026, 8:43:00 AM

Solar Flare and CME Overview

On 10 May 2024 at 09:39 EDT (1339 GMT), an M5.7 solar flare erupted from sunspot region AR4436 on the Sun’s northeastern limb. The flare expelled a coronal mass ejection (CME) captured by the SOHO LASCO C3 coronagraph. Most of the CME is projected east of Earth, but models suggest a peripheral portion could intersect Earth’s magnetosphere in the early hours of 13 May 2024.

Background and Recent Storms

Solar flares are classified A-through-X, each step a ten-fold rise in energy. An M5.7 flare ranks among the stronger events capable of disrupting high-frequency radio. Exactly two years earlier, on 10 May 2024, Earth endured the first “extreme” G5 storm since 2003, producing auroras that reached mid-latitudes such as southern Florida and Mexico.

Timeline of the Event

10 May 2024, 09:39 EDT – M5.7 flare peaks; CME observed by SOHO LASCO C3.

Shortly after – Radio blackout over the Atlantic.

Early 13 May 2024 – Predicted window for a glancing CME encounter.

Data and Expected Impacts

Flare strength: M5.7 (moderate-to-strong).

Potential storm: G1 (minor).

Radio: High-frequency blackout on sunlit side at eruption.

Aurora: Enhanced displays likely at high latitudes, especially northern U.S. and U.K., if CME brushes Earth.

Official Forecasts and Responses

NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.K. Met Office say a peripheral part of the CME may brush Earth, potentially triggering a minor G1 geomagnetic storm. Both agencies advise monitoring radio communications and issuing aurora alerts for the early-May 13 window.

Conflicting Projections and Uncertainties

Model outputs differ on the CME’s exact trajectory. While the bulk of the ejecta heads east of Earth, the agencies’ forecasts allow for a peripheral interaction, leaving the storm’s strength uncertain and limiting expectations to a weak glancing blow.

Verbatim Quotes

“7 solar flare triggered radio blackouts on the sunlit portion of Earth at the time of the eruption.” — Space.com article

“These blackouts occur when intense X-ray and ultraviolet radiation from solar flares ionize Earth's upper atmosphere, interfering with high-frequency radio signals used by aviators, mariners and amateur radio operators.” — Space.com article

“While the latest CME is not expected to produce anything close to the May 2024 storm, forecasters say a weak glancing blow from the May 10 eruption could still produce minor geomagnetic storm conditions later this week.” — Space.com article

What’s Next

Space-weather centers will continue to track the CME through 13 May 2024, issuing real-time alerts for any geomagnetic disturbances. Aurora observers in high-latitude regions are advised to watch local forecasts for possible displays during the predicted encounter window.