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Goldman: US Recession Odds Drop to 25% After Strong Jobs

5/12/2026

Summary

Story summary

Goldman Sachs said the U.S. 12-month recession probability fell to 25% as activity and a financial-conditions index below pre-war levels improved outlook.
It pointed to the April jobs report—115,000 jobs added, unemployment at 4.3%—and noted private sales rose 2.5% despite a first-quarter GDP miss.
Goldman’s outlook remains five points above pre-war and ten points above average, while economists Gary Schilling and Mark Zandi forecast recession risks of 40% or more.

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Story summary

Goldman Sachs said the U.S. 12-month recession probability fell to 25% as activity and a financial-conditions index below pre-war levels improved outlook.
It pointed to the April jobs report—115,000 jobs added, unemployment at 4.3%—and noted private sales rose 2.5% despite a first-quarter GDP miss.
Goldman’s outlook remains five points above pre-war and ten points above average, while economists Gary Schilling and Mark Zandi forecast recession risks of 40% or more.