UK Consumer Spending Slips in April Amid Middle East Tensions

Barclays recorded a 0.1 % year-on-year fall in overall card spending in April 2026 – the first decline since November 2024. Non-essential purchases dropped 0.3 %, travel fell 5.7 % (airlines down 8.3 %), while fuel spending rose 10.4 %. The British Retail Consortium (BRC) and KPMG reported total retail sales down 3 % YoY in April, with food sales 2.5 % lower and non-food sales 3.3 % lower. Combining March and April to offset the earlier Easter holiday shows sales up 1.5 % YoY, indicating the April dip is partly seasonal.

The Independent

The Bank of England warned that higher inflation linked to the Iran-related conflict is “unavoidable,” projecting energy bills to rise 16 % to £1,900 by summer and food prices to increase 7 % by year-end. Barclays chief UK economist Jack Meaning said prolonged uncertainty could strain households and businesses. KPMG’s Linda Ellett described the month as “disappointing” even after accounting for the Easter shift, underscoring the challenge of isolating conflict effects.

The Guardian

The British Retail Consortium argued that the Easter calendar shift, not just geopolitical tension, drove much of the April sales fall, especially in food. KPMG added that the drop in big-ticket purchases and a slowdown in furniture recovery reflected seasonal timing as much as consumer anxiety over the Middle East conflict.

The Independent

A Barclays-commissioned survey found 72 % of respondents expect the Middle East conflict to affect their cost of living in 2026. Travel concerns were prominent: 70 % cited rising travel costs, 62 % feared disruptions, and 16 % postponed holiday plans. Confidence in non-essential spending fell to 49 %, the lowest since March 2023, while 52 % still felt able to manage day-to-day finances. Discrepancies remain: the 3 % April retail decline contrasts with a 1.5 % YoY rise when March is included, and the Bank of England’s inflation forecasts lack concrete CPI figures, leaving the scale of the “unavoidable” rise unclear.

The Guardian

• “April’s sales fall was largely driven by the Easter shift, with food hit hardest. But weak consumer confidence also played a role as fears about the Middle East conflict driving up living costs led shoppers to rein in … With the World Cup coming, retailers hope it will provide a lift, and early signs show demand for TVs and sound systems picking up.” — Helen Dickinson, Chief Executive, British Retail Consortium

The Guardian

• “Consumer confidence has been further dampened by rising prices due to the Iran conflict, with consumers cautious about potential ongoing effects.” — Linda Ellett, UK Head of Consumer, Retail and Leisure Markets, KPMG

The Independent

• “ Linda Ellett, UK head of consumer, retail and leisure markets at KPMG, said: “It was a disappointing April for the retail sector, even factoring in an earlier Easter shifting some spending into March.” — Linda Ellett, KPMG

The Independent

• “Jack Meaning, chief UK economist at Barclays, said: “With uncertainty high both at home and abroad, it is unsurprising to see confidence falling.” — Jack Meaning, Barclays

The Independent

Retailers hope the summer World Cup will boost demand for electronics and leisure goods. Analysts caution that continued geopolitical tension could keep inflationary pressure high, extending the current restraint in household spending.

The Independent