Full Breakdown
How 2025 College Football Preseason Polls Missed Indiana and Miami
5/12/2026, 11:13:25 PM
Indiana and Miami Capture the 2025 National Title
In the 2025 College Football Playoff, the Indiana Hoosiers, coached by Curt Cignetti, defeated the Miami Hurricanes to claim the program’s first national championship. Hoosier quarterback Fernando Mendoza, a transfer from the University of California, also secured the Heisman Trophy. Both teams entered the season outside the top two spots in every major preseason poll.
The Role and Timing of Preseason Rankings
Preseason magazines and polls appear on shelves in May and June, offering early predictions of the upcoming season. These rankings shape fan expectations, media narratives, and, to a lesser extent, recruiting conversations. Historically, their accuracy has varied widely, with occasional surprise champions.
Preseason Rankings vs. Final Outcomes (Data & Statistics)
- ESPN Preseason Top Two: 1) Texas, 2) Penn State – Indiana 17th, Miami 10th.
- Lindy’s Preseason Top Two: 1) Georgia, 2) Ohio State – Indiana 31st, Miami 10th.
- Sporting News Preseason Top Two: 1) Ohio State, 2) Clemson – Indiana 25th, Miami 10th.
- Phil Steele Preseason Top Two: 1) Penn State, 2) Clemson – Indiana 20th, Miami 10th.
- Associated Press Preseason Top Two: 1) Ohio State, 2) Clemson – Indiana 19th, Miami 10th.
Final AP Top 10 (Jan. 20, 2026): 1) Indiana, 2) Miami, 3) Ole Miss, 4) Oregon, 5) Georgia, 6) Ohio State, 7) Texas Tech, 8) Texas A&M, 9) Alabama, 10) Notre Dame.
Official Poll Publishers’ Preseason Projections
Each poll’s preseason release listed a different pair of teams as the projected national contenders, while both Indiana and Miami were placed outside the top-15. The AP poll, which ultimately ranked Indiana first, had positioned the Hoosiers at 19th before the season began. No poll anticipated either program reaching the championship game.
Why the Polls Missed the Mark
The article notes that “the portal, NIL and revenue sharing have made it nearly impossible to get it right,” highlighting structural changes that disrupt traditional performance predictors. It argues that the failure to foresee Indiana’s offensive surge and Miami’s defensive strength reflects broader challenges in forecasting college football outcomes.
Verbatim Quotes
- “) Miami Based on those preseason rankings, no one came close to Indiana beating the Miami Hurricanes for the 2025 national championship.” — Dan McGlynn, Sportswriter, Sports Illustrated
- “The point here is not to bash the magazines for not getting things right, but to say how difficult it is to predict how college football teams will perform in any given year.” — Dan McGlynn
- “The portal, NIL and revenue sharing have made it nearly impossible to get it right.” — Dan McGlynn
- “Someday, someone might get it right.” — Dan McGlynn
What’s Next: 2026 Preseason Polls and Ongoing Uncertainty
As new preseason magazines prepare for release in the coming months, fans and analysts will again turn to early rankings despite their mixed track record. The 2025 season serves as a reminder that even widely respected polls can miss emerging powerhouses, keeping the sport’s competitive landscape unpredictable.
