Full Breakdown
Michigan Senate Race Tightens as New Poll Shows Rogers Holding Narrow Lead
5/13/2026, 1:18:20 AM
Core Contest: Poll Numbers and Voter Landscape
A Glengariff Group poll commissioned by the Detroit Regional Chamber surveyed 600 likely general-election voters in Michigan from April 28 to May 1. The poll found former Rep. Mike Rogers (R) at 43.8 % against Rep. Haley Stevens (D) at 41.5 %, at 42.8 % against state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D) at 40.7 %, and at 44.7 % against former Wayne County health director Abdul El-Sayed (D) at 39.8 %. Undecided voters comprised 14.7 % in the Rogers-Stevens matchup, 16.5 % versus McMorrow, and 15.5 % versus El-Sayed. The poll’s margin of error is ±4 percentage points.
Background & Context
Sen. Gary Peters (D) announced his retirement, leaving Michigan’s Class II Senate seat open for the first time since 2015. National Republicans have labeled the race a top pickup opportunity, viewing it as a pathway to a Senate majority. Michigan’s recent presidential votes have swung between parties, making the contest a bellwether for the 2026 midterms.
Key Candidates & Campaign Messaging
- Mike Rogers (R) – Promises a “Get Michigan Working Again” agenda, pledging to restore jobs, improve education, and lower living costs.
- Haley Stevens (D) – Positions herself as the strongest Democrat among “definite” voters, emphasizing support from Black voters and a coalition-building approach.
- Mallory McMorrow (D) – Portrays herself as a moderate alternative capable of uniting the Democratic base while narrowing the gap with Rogers.
- Abdul El-Sayed (D) – Focuses on mobilizing young voters, noting strong backing from voters under 44 years old.
Data & Statistics
- Sample composition: 41 % Democratic, 40 % Republican, 16 % independent voters.
- Trump approval: 57 % of respondents disapprove of President Donald Trump’s job performance; 37 % approve. Among independents, 65 % disapprove, up from a 20-point gap a year earlier. 21 % of Republican-leaning voters and 10.6 % of core GOP voters also disapprove.
- Fundraising (as of March end): Rogers ? $4 million; El-Sayed ? $2.5 million; McMorrow ? $3.6 million; Stevens ? $3.3 million.
- Rogers’ new television ad stresses “shop class” and “jobs AI can’t eliminate, jobs China can’t steal.”
Official Statements & Responses
Rogers’ campaign reiterated its “Get Michigan Working Again” platform, pledging to reverse perceived Democratic policy failures. Stevens’ team highlighted her lead among definite voters and her record of securing Black voter support. McMorrow’s spokesperson framed her candidacy as the “safer choice” to keep the Democratic base intact. El-Sayed’s campaign emphasized his appeal to younger voters and the need to turn out the “left-behind” demographic.
Criticism & Opposition
Pollster Richard Czuba warned that the sizable undecided bloc—most of whom disapprove of Trump—creates a “treacherous path” for Rogers, turning the race into a de-facto referendum on Trump. The poll also showed Democratic women outperforming the male El-Sayed, suggesting gender dynamics may disadvantage his candidacy. Analysts note that the narrow leads fall within the poll’s margin of error, underscoring the race’s volatility.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Some sources report Rogers-Stevens at 44 %-44 % among “definite” voters, while others give 43.8 %-41.5 % for the overall sample. Poll dates vary slightly (April 28-May 1 vs. April 28-May 5). Additional surveys—Emerson College and Mitchell Research—show divergent leads, with Stevens or McMorrow ahead in separate polls. No data on voter-turnout projections or detailed demographic breakdowns beyond age and party affiliation are provided.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Mike Rogers continues to command the field with his campaign to Get Michigan Working Again,” — Alyssa Brouillet, Rogers spokeswoman
- “This is going to be a referendum on Donald Trump. That makes for a very treacherous path for Mike Rogers.” — Richard Czuba, pollster, Glengariff Group
- “The candidate who can win a general election in Michigan is the candidate who can turn out young people and folks who have been left behind. Abdul is winning with 80 percent of voters under 44,” — Sophie Pollock, El-Sayed spokesperson
- “Haley leads Rogers with definite voters, she has the highest vote share of any Democrat, and performs best of any Democrat with Black voters––a consistency across all polling that demonstrates Haley is building the coalition to win,” — Arik Wolk, Stevens spokesperson
- “This race is about nominating the best candidate to win both the primary and the general. What’s clear is Abdul El-Sayed is consistently the weakest candidate against Mike Rogers, Stevens has lost ground, and the more voters get to know Mallory, the better she does – closing the gap against Mike Rogers to a statistical tie.” — Jackson Boaz, McMorrow spokesperson
Why It Matters
The open seat determines whether Republicans can flip a Senate seat they have not held since 2015, a key factor in the GOP’s bid for a majority. Michigan’s swing-state status, combined with shifting voter attitudes toward Trump, makes the contest a microcosm of national political dynamics. Retaining the seat is also a “must-win” for Democrats to preserve their path to Senate control.
What’s Next
The Democratic primary is scheduled for August 4, 2026, with early voting July 25-August 2. The general election will occur on November 4, 2026. Both campaigns have intensified fundraising and advertising, and upcoming debates and voter-outreach events are expected to shape the undecided electorate identified in the poll.
