Full Breakdown
Survey Reveals Widespread Doubt Among Democrats About Trump Assassination Attempts
5/13/2026, 1:19:59 AM
Background: The Three Alleged Attempts
Three incidents involving President Donald Trump have been investigated as assassination attempts: a July 2024 rally in Butler, Pennsylvania (shooter wounded Trump, killed Corey Comperatore); a September 2024 incident at Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach, Florida; and an April 25 2026 shooting at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner in Washington, D.C., when Cole Thomas Allen was stopped at a security checkpoint.
Data & Statistics: Party-Based Beliefs
A NewsGuard/YouGov poll of 1,000 U.S. adults (April 28–May 4) asked whether each event was staged. Averaging the three incidents, 54 % said “staged or not sure.” By event, 42 % of Democrats said the Butler rally was staged, 26 % said the West Palm Beach incident was staged, and 34 % said the dinner shooting was staged. Overall, 30 % of all respondents believed at least one attempt was staged, while 38 % said all three were authentic. Among Democrats, 21 % claimed all three were fabricated; among Republicans, 3 % did so.
Official Statements & Responses
The White House called the theories “unfounded,” noting that investigations confirmed each incident’s authenticity. Senator John Fetterman (D-PA) rejected the dinner-shooting conspiracy, citing his presence at the event and urging Democrats to avoid “tin-foil-hat” narratives.
Criticism & Opposition
Right-leaning commentators argue that the Democratic belief reflects partisan misinformation, emphasizing the lack of evidence for any staging and the logistical impossibility of fabricating events captured on video and forensic analysis.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Sources vary on the exact share of Democrats labeling each event staged: some cite “up to a third” for the dinner, others report 34 %; Butler figures appear as 42 % or 53 % when “staged or not sure” is combined. The poll consistently asks “staged or not sure,” yet articles sometimes present only the “staged” share, obscuring respondents’ uncertainty.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Anyone who thinks President Trump staged his own assassination attempts is a complete moron,” — White House spokesperson
- “Assassinations + political violence are real. My party can’t be the tin foil hat brigade. I was there a table away and I promise you, this was not staged,” — Senator John Fetterman, D-PA
- “After we received these results from YouGov, we were so surprised by the survey findings that we asked YouGov to go back and recheck the data. They did so and confirmed their findings.” — NewsGuard editorial note
- “Has there ever been a president have this many close 'attempts' on their life? Maybe it's lax gun laws, maybe it's lack of mental health funding, or maybe it's fake … who knows …” — Rep. Jasmine Crockett, D-TX
What’s Next
The poll appears amid the 2026 midterms, and further surveys will track whether partisan skepticism endures as investigations proceed.
