Energy Prices, Inflation, and Policy: A Cross-Atlantic Deep Dive

In April 2026 the Consumer Price Index rose 0.6 percent, with a year-over-year increase of 3.8 percent, according to the Department of Labor. Energy prices accounted for more than 40 percent of the monthly rise, lifting gasoline costs 5.4 percent and electricity 2.1 percent. Brent crude climbed from $62 a barrel in mid-February to $107 a barrel, a shift linked to the war with Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

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Interior Secretary Doug Burgum argued that California’s pipeline blockages and transmission-line bans have turned the state into an “energy island” dependent on oil shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. He noted that two-thirds of the oil entering California arrives by sea and that the state leads the nation in energy prices, taxes, and out-migration. Burgum also blamed extensive National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) requirements for slowing energy projects, saying the agency now focuses on the 20 percent of rules actually codified in law.

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Senator Dave McCormick (R-PA), speaking at a bipartisan Pennsylvania summit, said the United States must invest $92 billion to stay competitive with China, with $50 billion earmarked for new production capacity and transmission. He described the effort as “a team sport” and urged congressional action on permitting reform and other legislative work to accelerate projects. McCormick emphasized that energy demand is projected to triple over the next 15 years, requiring rapid expansion of both generation and grid infrastructure.

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The ITEM Club, using Treasury-aligned models, projected that rising energy costs will jeopardize 163 000 jobs in 2026, especially in construction and manufacturing. Advisor Tim Lyne warned that low-income regions will feel the greatest strain as disposable income falls. The Labour government’s continuation of the Climate Change Levy and bans on new oil and gas licences have been cited as contributors to the higher energy-price environment.

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• Burgum linked California’s high taxes and pipeline bans to national cost increases and announced efforts to reestablish offshore drilling.

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• McCormick called for integrated investment across energy, AI, and capital markets, highlighting bipartisan participation at the Pennsylvania event.

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• The ITEM Club’s forecast attributes job losses primarily to energy-price-driven inflation and the Labour Party’s net-zero tax agenda.

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Analysts cited by the ITEM Club contend that the Labour government’s net-zero taxes and bans on domestic oil and gas development exacerbate the United Kingdom’s energy-price surge, diverting blame to external market forces. In the United States, Burgum’s assessment of California as a self-inflicted “energy island” has been challenged by state officials who argue that environmental regulations serve broader public-health goals.

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• “Sixty percent – two out of three barrels of oil – comes into California by ship. They blocked every pipeline. They blocked transmission lines. They’ve turned themselves proudly into an energy island, and then they’re complaining, you know, to this administration, about their high energy prices,” — Doug Burgum, Interior Secretary

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• “This is a team sport. If we’re going to win in this existential battle with China, we need to get all those people today. We can’t get the AI companies out on their own or the energy companies out. Everybody needs to be integrated. This is like winning World War Two. That’s the kind of integration across America to be able to persevere.” — Dave McCormick, Senator

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• “We did an [Environmental Assessment] EA in 12 days, and didn’t cut any corners,” — Doug Burgum, Interior Secretary

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Burgum’s claim that California’s policies alone are responsible for national energy-cost increases lacks independent verification. The ITEM Club’s model attributes UK job losses to energy prices but does not isolate the impact of specific tax measures, leaving uncertainty about the precise causal weight of each policy.

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The Trump administration plans to pursue offshore-drilling approvals while the Department of the Interior continues NEPA reforms. In Congress, legislators are expected to debate permitting reforms highlighted by McCormick. The ITEM Club warns that without policy adjustments, UK job losses could exceed projected figures later in 2026.

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