Full Breakdown
Poll Shows Significant Share of Americans Question Authenticity of Recent Trump Assassination Attempts
5/13/2026, 2:52:25 AM
Survey Findings on Perceived Staging of Trump Assassination Attempts
A NewsGuard-YouGov poll of 1,000 U.S. adults conducted April 28–May 4, 2026 found that 30 % believe at least one of three recent attacks on former President Donald Trump was “staged.” For the April 2026 White House Correspondents’ Dinner (WHCD) shooting, 24 % said it was staged; 34 % of Democrats and 13 % of Republicans shared that view. One-quarter of respondents thought the July 2024 Butler, Pennsylvania rally attack was staged, and 16 % applied that label to the September 2024 West Palm Beach golf-course incident. A plurality (?45 %) considered each event a genuine attempt, while the remainder were unsure.
Recent Attempts on Trump’s Life
- July 2024 – Butler, Pennsylvania rally: Gunfire erupted during a campaign rally; a bullet clipped Trump’s right ear, killing attendee Corey Comperatore. Shooter Thomas Crooks was killed by Secret Service agents.
- September 2024 – West Palm Beach golf club: A gunman concealed in nearby bushes was intercepted by agents before reaching the president; Trump was unharmed.
- April 2026 – WHCD at the Washington Hilton: Cole Tomas Allen tried to breach a security checkpoint, was stopped, and was later charged with four felonies, including attempted assassination.
Demographic and Partisan Breakdown
Young adults (18-29) were the most skeptical: 32 % said the WHCD attack was staged and 30 % believed at least one of the three incidents was fabricated. Among Democrats, 34 % labeled the WHCD attack staged, 42 % the Butler rally, and 26 % the West Palm Beach plot. Republicans were less convinced, with 13 %, 7 %, and 7 % respectively. Overall, 21 % of Democrats, 11 % of independents, and 3 % of Republicans said all three attacks were staged.
Official Responses to the Conspiracy Theories
President Trump dismissed the staging claims on *60 Minutes*, calling conspiracists “more sick than they are con people.” White House spokesman Davis Ingle labeled anyone asserting the attacks were staged “a complete moron.” NewsGuard editor Sofia Rubinson noted the poll “shows people on all sides of the political spectrum are distrustful of both this administration and the media.” Federal prosecutors reiterated that investigations found “no credible evidence” the incidents were fabricated, and they continue to pursue charges against Allen.
Criticism and Concerns Over Normalization of Political Violence
Commentators warned that belief in staged attacks may normalize political violence, especially among younger citizens. Bill Maher warned of a “dangerous normalization” of such violence. Security-insurance firm Blackthorne International reported a three-fold rise in inquiries for “active assailant” coverage, reflecting heightened fear. Law-enforcement officials also noted that some recent violent-plot suspects cited the 2022 Luigi Mangione case as inspiration.
Verbatim Quotes
- “There's really not a lot of evidence that these social media users are citing or relying on,” — Sofia Rubinson, NewsGuard editor
- “I think they're more sick than they are con people,” — Donald Trump, former President
- “Anyone who thinks President Trump staged his own assassination attempts is a complete moron.” — Davis Ingle, White House spokesman
- “Increasingly, people on all sides of the political spectrum are distrustful of both this administration and also the media.” — Sofia Rubinson, NewsGuard editor
- “Conspiracy theorizing has infected our body politic now to the point where it has become a gut reflex for a seemingly growing portion of the population.” — Jared Holt, Open Measures senior researcher
- “No stunt would be so sloppy, amateurish, and chaotic. No stunt would leave Trump and those around him looking weak, old, and—some of them—terrified. No stunt orchestrated by Trump insiders would end in backbiting and recrimination inside his inner circle,” — Hugh Dougherty, executive editor, *The Daily Beast*
Implications and What Lies Ahead
The poll underscores a widening credibility gap that could deepen partisan polarization and erode confidence in law-enforcement findings. Cole Allen’s federal case is slated for trial later this year, and the White House’s aggressive rebuttals suggest a continued battle over narrative control. Analysts warn that persistent doubts about high-profile security incidents may fuel further extremist rhetoric, making media-literacy initiatives and transparent investigative communication increasingly critical to preserving democratic discourse.
