Falcon 9 Upper Stage Set to Impact Moon on Aug 5 2026

The upper stage of SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket (2025-010D) will strike the Moon on 5 August 2026 at 06:44 UTC near Einstein crater, a boundary between the near and far sides. Astronomer Bill Gray, using Project Pluto software, estimates an impact speed of Mach 7 (seven times the speed of sound). The 70-meter, 550-ton stage will intersect Moon after a 26-day elliptical Earth orbit (perigee ~220,000 km, apogee ~510,000 km).

ScienceAlert

The Moon has hosted impacts: Apollo modules in the 1970s generated moonquakes; NASA’s LCROSS probe crashed in 2009, revealing water-ice; a Chang’e 5-T1 booster hit the far side in 2022, forming a double-crater seen by the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter. These events show the Falcon 9 collision will add another crater.

ScienceAlert

Bill Gray, an independent astronomer and developer of the Project Pluto tracking software, provided the impact prediction. SpaceX’s Falcon 9 launch vehicle will deliver payloads and generate upper stage in orbit. NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter will monitor the site, while Artemis IV and China’s planned crewed mission illustrate the growing presence that could be affected by lunar debris.

ScienceAlert

• January 2025: Falcon 9 2025-010D launches with Blue Ghost Mission 1 and Hakuto-R Mission 2 lunar landers.

ScienceAlert

• ~26 days later: Upper stage enters elliptical Earth orbit (220,000 km × 510,000 km).

ScienceAlert

• 5 August 2026, 06:44 UTC: Predicted impact near Einstein crater.

ScienceAlert

The impact highlights a growing debris issue: uncontrolled upper-stage disposal creates material that can threaten satellites and future crewed missions. Artemis IV aims for a 2028 lunar landing, and China plans a crewed mission around 2030, underscoring the need for sustainable end-of-life practices.

ScienceAlert

Experts warn that reckless space-junk disposal threatens satellites and may endanger humans and equipment sooner rather than later. The suggestion to move spent stages to heliocentric graveyard orbits reflects calls for stricter disposal standards.

ScienceAlert

• "The motion of space junk is mostly quite predictable; it simply moves under the influence of the gravity of the Earth, Moon, Sun, and planets. We know those with immense precision." — Bill Gray, Independent Astronomer (Project Pluto)

ScienceAlert

• "The orbit of the Moon and of this object, roughly speaking, intersect." — Bill Gray, Independent Astronomer

ScienceAlert

• "On August 5, they'll reach that point at the same time." — Bill Gray, Independent Astronomer

ScienceAlert

• "To put upper stages in orbits where they will leave the Earth and Moon, and end up in orbit around the Sun, such that they won't hit us for a long time." — Bill Gray, Independent Astronomer

ScienceAlert

• "And what happens after that time, potentially hundreds or thousands of years, will be a problem for future us." — Bill Gray, Independent Astronomer

ScienceAlert

NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter will likely image the fresh crater, providing data on impact morphology. The event may spur policy discussions on end-of-life disposal, including adoption of heliocentric graveyard orbits for upper stages as crewed lunar programs advance.

ScienceAlert