Full Breakdown
Canadian Travel to the United States Plummets Amid Trade Tensions
5/13/2026, 12:08:58 PM
Travel Decline Amid Trade Tensions
Cell-phone activity from the University of Toronto’s School of Cities shows a median 42% drop in Canadian visits to U.S. metros in 2025, while border data record a 25% decline. Researchers attribute the slowdown to President Donald Trump’s 25% tariff on Canadian imports and his “51st state” remarks. Las Vegas Mayor Shelley Berkley urged Canadians to return.
Key Statistics
Cell-phone data show a 42% median decline, with sharpest falls in Myrtle Beach (-65%) and Yuma (-62%) and 50% loss in several metros. Dallas and Grand Rapids saw 50%-plus drops in Canadian business visitors. Las Vegas tourism fell 17.4% (1.4 M to 1.2 M). Business trips are ~20% of Canadian trips, generating 60% of air-fare and lodging revenue. Center for Economic and Policy Research estimates 6% staff cuts in U.S. firms (14-42 k jobs). National Bank of Canada Financial Markets data showed Canadian investors placed C$59.9 B in U.S. equities and debt Jan-May 2025, largest YTD sum since 1990.
Impact
Reduced business travel threatens revenue from conference centers, hotels, and dining, and may signal longer-term disengagement from a historic ally. Projected job losses and lower lodging income amplify the economic ripple across border-linked sectors.
Official Responses
U.S. tourism officials promoted incentives, such as Las Vegas casinos offering a 1:1 Canadian-to-U.S. dollar exchange rate through August. Visit Florida’s President and CEO Bryan Griffin highlighted outreach to Canadian partners to sustain visitation.
Criticism & Opposition
A Politico poll of 2,000 Canadians found 58% view the United States as an unreliable ally and nearly 80% say Trump’s tariffs and remarks have weakened bilateral ties. Researchers describe the pullback as a boycott extending from personal consumption to business engagements.
Conflicting Data
Cell-phone analytics indicate a 42% median decline, while official border records show a 25% drop, suggesting statistics may understate the slowdown, especially for short-duration business trips that often bypass checkpoints.
Verbatim Quotes
- “As the mayor of Las Vegas, I’m telling everybody in Canada, please come. We love you, we need you, and we miss you.” — Shelley Berkley, Mayor of Las Vegas
- “The story these numbers tell us is that it’s not just tourist travel—a lot of it is tourist travel—but there’s other travel that’s hurt as well,” — Karen Chapple, Director, University of Toronto School of Cities
- “It’s probably driven by a feeling that, if we’re going to boycott in our personal lives, let’s do it in our work lives too,” — Karen Chapple
- “We're doing what we can, just as we are with any country outside the United States, to make sure that visitation remains strong,” — Bryan Griffin, President and CEO, Visit Florida
Outlook
Industry leaders expect diplomatic talks and tariff revisions to shape future travel flows. Monitoring cross-border business trips and investment patterns will determine whether the decline is a temporary reaction or a lasting shift in North American economic relations.
