Full Breakdown
OPEC Production Plummets to Historic Lows as Iran War Shuts Strait of Hormuz
5/13/2026, 8:33:38 PM
April 2026 Production Collapse Amid Iran War
In April 2026 Saudi Arabia’s output fell by 651,000 bpd to 6.316 million bpd, its lowest since 1990. OPEC’s total production dropped to 18.98 million bpd, the lowest since at least 2000.
Strait of Hormuz Closure Drives Supply Shock
The Iran-U.S. war has closed the Strait of Hormuz, the main Gulf oil artery, choking exports from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq and Kuwait and forcing reroutes.
Production Data and Regional Shifts
Saudi output fell 651 k bpd to 6.316 million bpd; OPEC-plus crude averaged 33.19 million bpd in April, down 1.74 million bpd from March. Kuwait’s production slashed to ~600 k bpd, under 25% of pre-war levels. Iraq also declined, while the UAE increased exports via a Red Sea pipeline. Russia’s output may have slipped 300-400 k bpd, yet its oil revenue rose to $9 billion. Saudi Arabia mitigated losses by diverting part of its exports through a Red Sea pipeline.
Revised Global Demand Outlook
OPEC cut its 2026 demand-growth forecast to 1.2 million bpd (from 1.4 million). The International Energy Agency projected a 420 k bpd contraction in 2024, the steepest since 2020. OPEC expects demand to rebound in 2027 with 1.54 million bpd growth.
Official Statements from OPEC and Saudi Arabia
OPEC said global economic growth remains resilient despite Middle-East tensions. It noted OPEC+ had planned output increases from April, but Hormuz’s closure “has made it impossible to deliver on the deal.” Saudi Arabia reported its “supply to market” at 6.879 million bpd, slightly above production.
Divergent Forecasts and Data Gaps
The IEA’s sharper demand-contraction estimate contrasts with OPEC’s modest revision, underscoring uncertainty over the war’s long-term impact on demand.
Market Impact and Inflation Risks
Fuel prices have surged, heightening the risk of a global recession. The production dip also strains OPEC’s ability to meet pledged output increases.
Verbatim Quotes
- “The war has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil route, curbing millions of barrels of Middle East output and sending fuel prices soaring.” — OPEC
- “The global economic growth continues to show resilience for this year despite geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East,” — OPEC
- “Kuwait is now pumping less than a quarter of prewar levels.” — Bloomberg
- “Saudi Arabia reported to OPEC that its crude oil production collapsed further last month to the lowest since 1990, as the Iran war choked off exports from the Persian Gulf.” — Bloomberg
- “The International Energy Agency said in its monthly report earlier on Wednesday that world demand will contract by 420,000 barrels a day this year, the steepest since the Covid pandemic in 2020.” — International Energy Agency
What’s Next for OPEC+
OPEC+ had agreed to resume output increases from April, but the Hormuz closure has made delivery impossible. The UAE’s surprise exit on May 1 may reshape future quota allocations within the group.
