Europe’s Jet Fuel Shortage Threatens Summer Travel

The Middle East war has stopped Gulf jet-fuel shipments that once covered about three-quarters of Europe’s 500,000 bpd imports, 75 % of which passed the Strait of Hormuz. The IEA warns that replacing only half the lost supply could push inventories below its 23-day safety level by June, risking physical shortages at some airports.

EU Observer

Europe refines ~1.1 million barrels of jet fuel daily but needs 1.6 million, rising to 1.8 million in summer. Since 2009, 35 of ~100 refineries have closed, cutting capacity by 20 % and leaving plants near full load, limiting Jet A-1 output. U.S. exports rose to four million barrels in April, covering only half the Gulf gap. Jet A-1’s –47 °C freeze point is lower than U.S. Jet A (–40 °C), hindering easy substitution.

EU Observer

IATA’s Stuart Fox warned that the conflict could cause global fuel shortfalls and suggested using Jet A to relieve pressure. IAG chief Luis Gallego said supply is secure and that the issue concerns price rather than availability.

The Independent

EASA permits fuel swaps if managed properly but warns that mixing Jet A with Jet A-1 may increase safety risks in cold conditions for airlines in the region.

The Independent

In early April, northern Italian airports—Bologna, Milan Linate, Venice Marco Polo and Treviso—imposed hard volume caps per aircraft, indicating physical shortages. Wizz Air reported fuel constraints at three Italian airports, resolved within hours, underscoring local supply fragility.

EU Observer

Eurostat’s latest jet-fuel stock data are from December 2025, so policymakers rely on delayed weekly refining figures. The IEA’s 23-day safety-stock benchmark contrasts with Europe’s 38-day average, but national stocks differ: the UK, with low reserves and 65 % import reliance, is most exposed, while Portugal sits at the 23-day threshold. These gaps limit accurate shortage assessment.

EU Observer

EU ministers will launch a fuel observatory to monitor jet-fuel stocks and flows, improving cross-border coordination. Analysts warn that without additional imports or wider Jet A use, airlines may begin canceling flights from late May, particularly at smaller inland airports with limited reserves.

EU Observer

• “In a blog, Stuart Fox, Iata’s director for Flight and Technical Operations, wrote: “The recent pressure on the supply of aviation fuel globally due to the war in the Middle East has put a spotlight on something most passengers never think about: the fuel in the aircraft.” — Stuart Fox, IATA Director for Flight and Technical Operations

The Independent

• “We are confident of jet fuel supply in our main markets throughout the summer. Today the situation is more about the price of fuel than availability.” — Luis Gallego, IAG CEO

The Independent

• “As it stands, Willie Walsh, head of the airline trade body IATA, has said that cancellations due to jet fuel shortages could begin as early as late May.” — Willie Walsh, IATA President

EU Observer

• “if managed properly” — European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA)

EU Observer