Full Breakdown
Japan Accelerates Shift to Non-Middle East Crude Amid Hormuz Blockade
5/13/2026, 10:59:50 PM
Background: Hormuz Closure and Regional Conflict
The war that began in late February 2026 between the United States-Israel coalition and Iran led to a near-complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The closure disrupted the primary maritime route for the crude oil that historically supplied about 95 % of Japan’s imports.
Timeline of Diversification Efforts
- Late February 2026 – Conflict erupts; Hormuz traffic sharply reduced.
- 16 March 2026 – Government releases oil from state stockpiles equal to roughly 75 days of consumption, the largest release on record.
- Week ending 2 May 2026 – Refinery utilisation rises to 77.3 % of design capacity, the first time above 70 % since March.
- Week ending 9 May 2026 – Utilisation remains high at 73.3 %.
- 12 May 2026 – A tanker from Azerbaijan delivers 45,000 kiloliters (?283,000 barrels) of crude to ENEOS’s Negishi refinery, the first Central-Asian cargo since the conflict began.
- 13 May 2026 – Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi announces that more than 70 % of June crude will come from sources outside the Middle East and directs Industry Minister Ryosei Akazawa to raise the July share.
Data on Procurement and Refining
- Over 70 % of Japan’s June crude imports are sourced from Africa, the United States, Latin America and Central Asia.
- The Azerbaijani cargo represents less than 0.1 % of Japan’s daily consumption of roughly 3 million barrels.
- Stockpile releases cover about 75 days of demand, described by the Petroleum Association of Japan as the nation’s biggest oil release ever.
- Refinery utilisation reached 77.3 % (week to 2 May) and 73.3 % (week to 9 May), marking the first sustained operation above 70 % since March.
- LNG imports that transit Hormuz account for only about 6 % of Japan’s total LNG supply, limiting the war’s impact on gas procurement.
Key Actors
- Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi
- Industry Minister Ryosei Akazawa
- Petroleum Association of Japan (PAJ)
- Idemitsu Kosan
- Cosmo Energy Holdings
- ENEOS (Negishi refinery)
Official Statements & Responses
Prime Minister Takaichi said Japan will secure more than 70 % of its June crude from non-Middle-East sources and will not release additional state reserves this month. Idemitsu Kosan expects the Strait of Hormuz to reopen between July and September, forecasting a decline in Dubai crude prices by the end of fiscal year 2027. Cosmo Energy projects Gulf crude production to normalise in August and anticipates stable procurement from September onward. ENEOS confirmed that the Azerbaijani cargo will be processed at the Negishi refinery into gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and petrochemical feedstocks.
Criticism & Concerns
Analysts note that alternative imports still represent a modest share of total demand; the long-term stability of replacement supplies remains uncertain if Hormuz stays closed (source 4).
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
The industry ministry cited a pre-shift weekly processing level of 07 million tons, but current weekly volumes are not disclosed, creating a data gap. Detailed percentages for each alternative source (U.S., Africa, Latin America) are also absent.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Newsfrom Japan Tokyo, May 12 (Jiji Press)--Japan is expected to secure over 70 pct of its crude oil procurement in June from sources other than the Middle East, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said Tuesday.” — Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi
- “Considering the progress of these efforts, Takaichi said that the government will not additionally release state oil reserves this month.” — Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi
- “Cosmo Energy expects Gulf crude oil production to normalise in August with procurement stabilising from September onwards, it said on Tuesday.” — Cosmo Energy Holdings
- “This is Japan's biggest oil release ever.” — Petroleum Association of Japan
What’s Next
The cabinet will review July procurement targets, while Idemitsu and Cosmo aim for over 90 % refinery utilisation by fiscal year 2027. Ongoing monitoring of Hormuz’s status will determine whether further stockpile releases are required.
