Full Breakdown
U-Shaped Recovery Amid a Decade-Long Learning Recession: District-Level Gains in Reading and Math
5/14/2026, 2:19:47 AM
Background: A Decline That Began Before COVID-19
Researchers from Harvard, Stanford and Dartmouth define a “learning recession” that started in 2013 for reading (eighth-grade scores) and 2015 for fourth-grade reading, predating the pandemic. The Education Scorecard, covering more than 5,000 districts in 38 states, attributes the early slide to the 2013-2014 fade-out of No Child Left Behind accountability and to rising teen social-media use.
Data Snapshot: National and State Trends
Nationally, students remain roughly half a grade level behind pre-pandemic reading scores, while math performance is only marginally better. The Scorecard shows a “U-shaped” post-pandemic recovery: the lowest- and highest-poverty districts improved more than middle-income districts. Only five states plus the District of Columbia recorded meaningful reading growth from 2022-2025; Pennsylvania placed 21st in math and 27th in reading among the 38 states analyzed, with students still about half a year below pre-pandemic levels.
District Success Stories: Pennsylvania, California, Maryland, and Beyond
West Allegheny School District (Pennsylvania) posted a 0.5-grade-level rise in reading and a 0.75-grade-level rise in math since 2019, making it one of 108 districts nationwide with significant gains. Butler Area School District (near Pittsburgh) expanded daily reading instruction to two hours and increased screening, recovering more ground than demographically similar districts. Montour School District added “What I Need” (WIN) periods to embed individualized learning. In Modesto, California, district-wide “science of reading” training (LETRS) and targeted English-language support yielded an extra 13 weeks of reading and 18 weeks of math learning. Baltimore City Public Schools, having adopted phonics-based instruction before the national wave, saw reading scores rebound to 2017 levels, with three-quarters of a kindergarten class reading at or above grade level by the end of 2025.
Policy Drivers: Science of Reading and Early Literacy Initiatives
States that improved reading—Louisiana, Maryland, Tennessee, Kentucky, Indiana—mandated phonics-focused curricula, often labeled the “science of reading.” Pennsylvania’s 2025 budget requires districts to adopt an evidence-based reading program by 2027-2028 and to screen K-3 students at least three times annually. The nonprofit Excel in Ed notes Pennsylvania has adopted 13 of 18 recommended early-literacy elements, though only one-third of fourth-graders are proficient.
Criticism & Limits of Reform
Science-of-reading mandates are not a panacea. Florida, Arizona and Nebraska altered instruction but still experienced score declines. District leaders caution that without addressing chronic absenteeism—still 21 % of Pennsylvania students miss >10 % of school days—reading gains may stall.
On-the-Ground Practices
West Allegheny’s superintendent replaced half-day kindergarten with full-day programs and emphasizes early literacy foundations. Montour’s director of instruction highlights strategic student planning during WIN periods to target deficits across the achievement spectrum. Modesto’s teachers receive $5,000 incentives for completing LETRS training, and Baltimore’s kindergarten classrooms employ phonics games and “reading rugs” to reinforce decoding skills.
Conflicting Explanations & Gaps
While the Scorecard links the 2013 downturn to reduced test-based accountability and increased social-media use, it stops short of establishing causality. Researchers also differ on the magnitude of federal pandemic-relief impact; Thomas Kane asserts relief was essential for high-poverty district recovery, yet quantitative attribution remains unverified.
Verbatim Quotes
- “You have to look both below and above where you might have room for improvement,” — Jerri Lippert, Superintendent, West Allegheny School District
- “The pandemic was the mudslide that had followed seven years of steady erosion in achievement,” — Thomas Kane, Harvard professor, Education Scorecard co-creator
- “When we became more focused on individual student planning, that also ensures growth for all students because we're now focusing on learning deficits for students at the highest end of the learning spectrum, all the way down to the lowest end of the learning spectrum,” — Dominic Salpeck, Director of Instruction, Montour School District
- “I think we are, as a society, putting more and more of our issues on school and thus the teacher to resolve,” — Brian White, Superintendent, Butler Area School District
- “We made enormous progress as a country in terms of educational success from over a 30-year period.” — Sean Reardon, Stanford University
What’s Next
Pennsylvania will enforce evidence-based reading curricula by the 2027-2028 school year and expand tri-annual early-grade screenings. Several states are drafting additional phonics mandates, while federal policymakers debate extending pandemic-relief funding to sustain tutoring and summer-school programs in middle-income districts that missed earlier aid. The Education Scorecard will release its 2026-2027 update in the fall, providing fresh benchmarks for district-level progress.
