Story perspectives

Hormuz Shut-in Persists, Gasoline Forecast Rises to $3.88 /gal

5/14/2026

Summary

EIA Raises Prices

The Energy Information Administration said the Strait of Hormuz will stay closed through late May and raised its 2026 gasoline price forecast to $3.88 per gallon.
It reported a 10.5 million-barrel-per-day crude shut-in in April and Brent near $106 a barrel in May.
IEA executive director Fatih Birol warned output is over 14 million barrels per day below prewar, and noted the agency released 400 million barrels of reserves.

Summary

Iran Imposes Toll

Iran announced it will charge a toll for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
A 2-million-barrel tanker docked in Yeosu after using a Red Sea bypass route.
The International Energy Agency released 400 million barrels from strategic reserves, with 164 million already delivered.
Onshore inventories fell by 146 million barrels in OECD nations and 24 million barrels in non-OECD countries.
Petrochemical and aviation sectors face the steepest cuts as jet-fuel use falls sharply.

Summary

IEA predicts delays

IEA head Toril Bosoni said normal Strait of Hormuz flows will take weeks to months to resume after a diplomatic solution.
Europe’s jet-fuel imports from the Middle East dropped to 60,000 bpd in April, 70 % of March’s 330,000 bpd level.
Europe increased jet-fuel purchases from the United States and Nigeria to 221,000 bpd in April, still short of the lost Middle-East supply.

History

Historical Context

October 1973 OAPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, cut production and imposed an embargo on Israel’s supporters, raising the posted price from $3.01 to $5.12 per barrel. The shock slashed U.S. crude imports and triggered a global recession. The 2026 Strait of Hormuz closure mirrors that disruption, prompting IEA chief Fatih Birol to release 400 million barrels from reserves.

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EIA Raises Prices

The Energy Information Administration said the Strait of Hormuz will stay closed through late May and raised its 2026 gasoline price forecast to $3.88 per gallon.
It reported a 10.5 million-barrel-per-day crude shut-in in April and Brent near $106 a barrel in May.
IEA executive director Fatih Birol warned output is over 14 million barrels per day below prewar, and noted the agency released 400 million barrels of reserves.

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