Full Breakdown
Canada-U.S. Travel Plummets Amid Political Tensions, Study Finds
5/14/2026, 4:30:16 AM
Sharp Decline in Canada-U.S. Cross-Border Travel
A University of Toronto study using cellphone-location data reports a median 42 % year-over-year drop in Canadian visits to U.S. metropolitan areas in 2025. Official border statistics show a 25 % decline in Canadians entering the United States and a 75 % decline in U.S. residents entering Canada during the same period.
Political and Trade Tensions Fueling the Drop
The study links the downturn to heightened political friction since the start of President Trump’s second term, including sweeping tariffs, stricter immigration rules, and remarks about making Canada the 51st U.S. state. These actions have prompted a consumer-level boycott of U.S. goods and travel among some Canadians.
Key Actors Behind the Shift
- University of Toronto researchers who compiled the cellphone dataset.
- President Trump, whose policy agenda is cited as a catalyst.
- Bryan Griffin, President and CEO of Visit Florida.
- Las Vegas casinos and hotels offering promotional exchange rates.
- Tourism officials in Florida coordinating outreach to Canadian partners.
Quantifying the Decline
City-level data reveal the steepest losses in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina (-65 %) and Yuma, Arizona (-62 %). San Francisco, Houston, Miami, Palm Bay and Panama City each recorded declines exceeding 50 %. The study also notes reduced business travel to high-tech and financial hubs such as San Francisco and Houston.
Economic and Diplomatic Implications
The contraction threatens tourism revenue in key U.S. markets and curtails cross-border business exchanges, potentially straining bilateral economic ties. Reduced visitor spending may affect hospitality employment, while diminished business trips could slow collaborative projects in technology and finance sectors.
Official Responses and Industry Initiatives
Study authors emphasize that “broader economic uncertainties on both sides of the border” are reshaping travel preferences. Visit Florida’s Bryan Griffin pledged continued efforts to sustain visitation. Las Vegas casinos introduced a promotion offering an “At Par” exchange rate between Canadian and U.S. dollars through August to entice Canadian travelers.
Public Backlash and Boycott
Some Canadians have responded to U.S. tariff and immigration measures by avoiding American products and leisure trips, reflecting grassroots opposition to the policies cited as drivers of the travel decline.
Conflicting Data Sources
The cellphone-derived 42 % decline contrasts with official border figures showing a 25 % drop for Canadians entering the United States. Conversely, U.S. resident entries into Canada fell 75 % according to official counts. The disparity highlights uncertainty about the precise magnitude of the travel contraction.
Verbatim Quotes
- “a year-over-year median decline of approximately 42% in Canadian visits to U.S. metropolitan areas.” — University of Toronto study
- “High-tech and financial centers like San Francisco and Houston appear to be experiencing reductions not only in tourists but also in business-related travel, reflecting changing travel preferences due to broader economic uncertainties on both sides of the border,” — University of Toronto study
- “We're doing what we can, just as we are with any country outside the United States, to make sure that visitation remains strong,” — Bryan Griffin, President & CEO, Visit Florida
- “At Par” — Las Vegas casinos and hotels promotional language
Outlook and Upcoming Measures
Florida tourism officials plan further meetings with Canadian counterparts to address the downturn, while the Las Vegas “At Par” exchange offer remains active until the end of August. Continued monitoring of travel patterns will inform future bilateral tourism strategies.
