U.S. Iran Conflict Deepens Dependence on Chinese Rare-Earth Minerals

Since the Iran war began in late February, the United States has used roughly half of its long-range stealth cruise missiles and about ten times its annual Tomahawk purchase rate, according to Defense Department and congressional data. The rapid drawdown forces defense contractors to replenish precision munitions, a process that relies on rare-earth minerals and high-performance magnets.

The Straits Times

China produces the majority of the rare-earth elements needed for modern weapons. In the past year it imposed export controls on firms linked to military use, using the restrictions as political leverage. Each missile launched against Iran raises U.S. short-term reliance on Chinese supplies, a factor shaping the agenda of the upcoming U.S.–China summit in Beijing.

The Straits Times

An F-35 fighter contains about 900 pounds of rare-earths; an Arleigh Burke-class destroyer carries roughly 5,200 pounds. Tomahawk missiles use samarium-cobalt magnets, while gallium and neodymium are essential for radars and lasers. The Pentagon’s FY 2027 budget request of $1.5 trillion earmarks billions for alternative critical-mineral sources, but diversification will take years.

The Straits Times

U.S. officials stress the need for a stable defense supply chain while seeking diplomatic engagement with China, which is also a strategic partner of Iran. Chinese policymakers cite the “minerals agreement” and argue that any extension would require U.S. concessions on tariffs and semiconductor controls.

New York Times

Analysts warn that prolonged conflict pits expanding defense needs against a supply chain still dominated by China. Mahnaz Khan of the Silverado Policy Accelerator warns of a “growing collision” between U.S. demand and Chinese-dominated minerals. Meng Weizhan of Fudan University argues the U.S. cannot sustain its military industry without Chinese rare earths, making leverage a bargaining chip.

The Straits Times

• “Every missile fired at Iran makes us that much more dependent in the near term on China and its rare-earth minerals.” — Christopher Padilla, former official

The Straits Times

• “But in a prolonged conflict, America could face a growing collision between expanding defense needs and mineral supply chains still heavily concentrated in China,” — Mahnaz Khan, Silverado Policy Accelerator

The Straits Times

• “Meng Weizhan, an assistant research professor at the Institute for Advanced Study in Social Sciences at Fudan University, told the Chinese publication The Observer that the main reason Trump might want to extend the current minerals agreement between the United States and China is that the US military industry cannot do without Chinese rare earths.” — Meng Weizhan, professor, Fudan University

The Straits Times

• “Meng argued that, if the United States wanted to request an extension of this agreement, it must make concessions to China in other areas, like tariffs or controls on semiconductors.” — Meng Weizhan, professor, Fudan University

The Straits Times

The Beijing summit will discuss the rare-earth issue alongside broader security topics, such as Taiwan’s defense. The Pentagon’s FY 2027 budget also funds the “Golden Dome” missile-defense program, which would need larger volumes of rare-earth magnets, underscoring the relevance of supply-chain talks.

The Straits Times