Story perspectives

U.S. Defeat Allows Iran to Seize Hormuz Toll Route

5/14/2026

Summary

Kagan: US Defeat

Robert Kagan, senior fellow at Brookings, says the United States has suffered a defeat in its war against Iran that began on February 28.
Iran now controls the Strait of Hormuz and can charge tolls for passage.
The United States will appear as a paper tiger, forcing Gulf states to accommodate Iran.
The defeat erodes America’s global standing, threatens Israel’s security, and may cause allies to doubt U.S. staying power.

Summary

Iran Hits Ras-Laffan

Damage to Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City, the world’s largest natural-gas export hub, will require years of repairs after Iran’s retaliation.
Kagan warns that any renewed strikes could cripple the region’s oil and gas infrastructure for years, plunging the world and the United States into a prolonged economic crisis.
Iran’s effective control of the Strait of Hormuz now lets it impose transit fees and restrict passage, threatening global energy shipments.
The Iranian attack on Ras Laffan targeted a key node in worldwide gas supply, exposing the vulnerability of international markets.
The Trump administration’s cease-fire was driven by Iranian strikes on regional energy facilities, not by any Iranian concession.
Kagan notes U.S. weapons stocks are “perilously low” after the 37-day campaign, limiting America’s ability to safeguard energy flows.

Summary

Kagan: NATO Collapse

Kagan says U.S. President Donald Trump's administration has effectively dismantled NATO and abandoned European allies.
Gulf states that relied on U.S. security are now forced to seek partners beyond America.
Japan and South Korea, heavily dependent on Middle-East energy, must develop independent security and energy strategies.
China emerges as the primary beneficiary of the Gulf power shift.
Russia also gains influence, signaling a sharp decline in U.S. global strategic credibility.

History

Historical Context

In October 1973 OAPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, cut production and imposed an oil embargo on the United States, driving crude from $3 to $12 a barrel—a 300 % jump. The shock forced the U.S. to build strategic reserves and the International Energy Agency. Today Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz revives that same leverage over American energy security.

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Kagan: US Defeat

Robert Kagan, senior fellow at Brookings, says the United States has suffered a defeat in its war against Iran that began on February 28.
Iran now controls the Strait of Hormuz and can charge tolls for passage.
The United States will appear as a paper tiger, forcing Gulf states to accommodate Iran.
The defeat erodes America’s global standing, threatens Israel’s security, and may cause allies to doubt U.S. staying power.

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