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USDA Forecasts Record-Low 2026/27 Wheat Harvest, Futures Surge

5/14/2026

Summary

USDA Cuts Wheat

USDA projected the 2026/27 U.S. wheat harvest at 1.56 billion bushels, the smallest since 1972.
USDA estimated hard red winter wheat at 515 million bushels and rated only 28 % of the crop good-to-excellent, the lowest share in four years.
Chicago wheat futures rose to their daily 45-cent-per-bushel limits after the USDA report.
USDA forecast soybean output at 4.435 billion bushels (second-largest) and corn at 15.995 billion bushels, a 6 % decline.

Summary

USDA Warns Shortfall

USDA linked the U.S. wheat shortfall to reduced acreage and winter wheat problems in Kansas and nearby states.
The 2026/27 U.S. wheat harvest is forecast at 42.49 million tons, about 5 million tons below expectations.
Global wheat production is projected at 819.06 million tons, 24.78 million tons lower than last year, with world exports expected at 211.7 million tons and ending stocks at 275.04 million tons, while U.S. stocks total 20.74 million tons.

Summary

Food Makers Trapped

CBOT daily price limits can trap hedgers such as food manufacturers when wheat contracts hit the ceiling.
Traders view limit moves as a sign of a stressed market rather than a simple trend.
The scarcity premium from the low harvest is baked into hard red winter wheat prices, the primary flour source.
If tight supply persists, mills and packaged-food makers face higher costs, eventually pressuring bread, pasta and baked-goods prices.

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USDA Cuts Wheat

USDA projected the 2026/27 U.S. wheat harvest at 1.56 billion bushels, the smallest since 1972.
USDA estimated hard red winter wheat at 515 million bushels and rated only 28 % of the crop good-to-excellent, the lowest share in four years.
Chicago wheat futures rose to their daily 45-cent-per-bushel limits after the USDA report.
USDA forecast soybean output at 4.435 billion bushels (second-largest) and corn at 15.995 billion bushels, a 6 % decline.

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