Brazil's Atlantic Forest Records Historic Low Deforestation Amid Legal and Political Threats

Monitoring by SOS Mata Atlântica and partner organisations shows that the Atlantic forest lost 8,658 ha of forest in 2025, the first time the biome fell below 10,000 ha since systematic records began in 1985. This represents a 40 % decline from 2024’s 14,366 ha.

The Guardian

The Atlantic forest, Brazil’s most populated biome and home to major cities such as Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo, has long faced pressure from urban expansion and logging. Deforestation surged during the 2019-2023 administration of former President Jair Bolsonaro, regularly exceeding 20,000 ha in his final two years. In late 2025 Congress approved the “devastation bill,” which removes the federal environmental agency’s prior-approval requirement for state-authorised deforestation, delegating decisions to local authorities. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva vetoed portions of the bill, but the vetoes were overturned by a largely conservative Congress. The law’s constitutionality is currently being challenged before the Supreme Court.

The Guardian

Two satellite-based monitoring systems reported different 2025 totals. The newer, higher-precision system recorded 8,658 ha; the older system, with a longer historical record, indicated a 28 % decline to 38,385 ha from 53,303 ha in 2024. The Atlantic forest now retains roughly 24 % of its original cover, compared with about 80 % in the Amazon and 50 % in the Cerrado savanna.

The Guardian

The federal government maintains that the “devastation bill” aligns with decentralised management goals while emphasizing that enforcement actions against illegal clearing continue. Officials cite the recent deforestation decline as evidence of effective policy implementation. Legal scholars note that the Supreme Court’s pending review will determine whether the law complies with Brazil’s constitutional environmental protections.

The Guardian

Environmental NGOs argue that the new law constitutes a “distortion” of Brazil’s climate commitments under the Paris Agreement and could exacerbate climate-related disasters. They warn that weakening protection instruments jeopardises decades of restoration work and that a potential electoral victory for Flávio Bolsonaro—senator and son of former President Jair Bolsonaro—could reverse recent gains, given his alignment with his father’s anti-science stance.

The Guardian

The discrepancy between the two datasets stems from differing satellite technologies: the newer system offers finer spatial resolution, while the older system provides continuity with historical data. Both sources agree that deforestation remains “high” in absolute terms, despite the downward trend.

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• “It’s a very worrying scenario,” — Luís Fernando Guedes Pinto, executive director, SOS Mata Atlântica

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• “Brazil could lose the opportunity to be a global environmental leader” — Luís Fernando Guedes Pinto, executive director, SOS Mata Atlântica

The Guardian

• “We have seen the return of a policy to combat deforestation under the current government … [If Flávio Bolsonaro wins] there is a risk of returning to a path of rising deforestation across all biomes, because his political group – the same as his father’s – is anti-science, denies climate science, and sees nature and forests as obstacles to development,” — Luís Fernando Guedes Pinto, executive director, SOS Mata Atlântica

The Guardian

• “deforestation is still high” — Luís Fernando Guedes Pinto, executive director, SOS Mata Atlântica

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• “in the Atlantic forest, every fragment lost makes a huge difference” — Luís Fernando Guedes Pinto, executive director, SOS Mata Atlântica

The Guardian

• “Weakening protection instruments now risks everything we have spent years building,” — Malu Ribeiro, director of public policy, SOS Mata Atlântica

The Guardian

The October 2026 presidential election pits incumbent Lula against Flávio Bolsonaro, whose campaign is tied in recent polls. The Supreme Court’s ruling on the “devastation bill” will shape the legal framework for future forest management. NGOs contend that sustained public pressure and policy continuity are essential to achieve the projected “zero deforestation” target within the next three years.

The Guardian