Full Breakdown
Xavier Becerra Surges to Lead in California’s Crowded Governor’s Race
5/15/2026, 5:51:30 AM
Becerra Leads Crowded Governor’s Race
An Emerson College poll of 1,000 likely primary voters (May 9-10) shows former HHS secretary Xavier Becerra at 19 percent, tied for first with Republican Steve Hilton and Democrat Tom Steyer at 17 percent each. When undecided voters are asked to lean toward a candidate, Becerra rises to 20 percent. Fifty-two percent of Becerra’s supporters say they will definitely vote for him.
Background: Swalwell’s Exit and Becerra’s Surge
Rep. Eric Swalwell dropped out in early April after sexual-assault allegations. Becerra’s support jumped nine points since mid-April, making him the top Democratic choice at 31 percent (Emerson). Fundraising rose from $500 k to $2.3 million after Swalwell’s exit.
Candidate Field and Poll Landscape
The primary includes Becerra (D), Steve Hilton (R), Tom Steyer (D), Chad Bianco (R), Katie Porter (D), Matt Mahan (D), Antonio Villaraigosa (D), Tony Thurmond (D) and over 50 others. Kreate Strategies (May 5-9) gave Hilton 22 percent, Becerra 20 percent; a Dave Binder poll showed Hilton 23 percent, Becerra 22 percent, Steyer 15 percent. Undecided voters range from 6 percent (Binder) to 12 percent (Emerson).
Stakes of the Top-Two Primary
California’s top-two primary advances the two highest vote-getters regardless of party. Analysts warn a split Democratic vote could let both Republicans—Hilton and Bianco—advance, leaving the state without a Democratic governor. Democrats have promoted a “wait-and-see” strategy to rally behind the strongest candidate.
Official Statements & Campaign Responses
Emerson executive Spencer Kimball said Becerra’s poll numbers jumped nine points since mid-April and that he now leads among Democratic voters. Becerra dismissed criticism of his HHS tenure as partisan rhetoric, promoted a “Medicare for All” framework, and urged supporters to turn out and vote. He affirmed cooperation with investigators regarding a complaint that his campaign paid former adviser Dana Williamson from a dormant account, stating that “everyone will be accountable.”
Criticism & Opposition
Former Los Angeles mayor Antonio Villaraigosa called the migrant-child allegations “not passing the smell test.” Matt Mahan said Becerra’s experience “didn’t lead to better outcomes.” A 2023 New York Times investigation found the HHS agency missed safety checks for unaccompanied children, with 16 percent of placements lacking background-check documentation. Republicans and immigrant-rights groups have repeatedly cited the report in debates.
Conflicting Poll Numbers
Emerson’s May 9-10 poll shows Becerra tied for first, while Kreate Strategies (May 5-9) and Binder (early May) put Hilton ahead. Undecided voter shares also differ, leaving the final top-two uncertain.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Xavier Becerra tops the crowded California primary for the first time in an Emerson poll, his support increased by nine points since mid-April, driven by now being the top choice among Democratic voters at 31%,” — Spencer Kimball, executive director, Emerson College Polling
- “MAGA talking point” — Xavier Becerra, KTLA interview
- “It doesn’t pass the smell test,” — Antonio Villaraigosa, CNN debate
- “We can not lose, if you go out and vote,” — Xavier Becerra, Sacramento town hall
What’s Next
The final gubernatorial debate is scheduled for May 13 in San Francisco. The June 2 primary will determine the top two candidates, who will face off in the November 3 general election.
