Tottenham and West Ham Face Off in Premier League Survival Battle

Entering the final two rounds of the 2025/26 Premier League, Tottenham Hotspur sit 17th with 38 points, two points ahead of 18th-placed West Ham United (36 points). Tottenham travel to Chelsea on 19 May and then host Everton on 24 May. West Ham visit Newcastle United on 17 May before hosting Leeds United on 24 May. The fixtures set a stark contrast: Tottenham face a club fighting for European qualification, while West Ham meet a side with little to play for.

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Opta’s simulation model gives Tottenham a 19.5 % chance of relegation versus West Ham’s 80.5 % chance. Expected final points are 40 for Tottenham and 39 for West Ham, implying survival for Spurs with two draws and a win for the Hammers in their remaining games. Tottenham have not won at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in ten league matches—a winless home run dating back to 1994—and hold a 3 % win rate at Stamford Bridge (one win in 33 attempts). Conversely, West Ham have won two of their last four visits to St James’ Park, including a 2-0 victory in 2018. Defensively, Tottenham have conceded five goals in their last five matches, allowing fewer expected goals and shots on target than any other side since Roberto De Zerbi’s appointment.

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Roberto De Zerbi’s arrival in November coincided with a defensive resurgence; Spurs now rank among the league’s best in expected goals against. Interim manager Calum McFarlane guided West Ham to a 1-1 draw at Liverpool, ending a six-game losing streak. The contrasting trajectories underscore the importance of tactical adjustments as the clubs approach the season’s climax.

Tottenham favourites to secure Premier League survival but do West Ham have better fixtures in relegation shoot-out?

Former Tottenham chairman Daniel Levy remarked that relegation was “not in a million years” during his tenure, emphasizing the club’s historic ambition. De Zerbi asserted that “Spurs have the quality to stay up.” Former player Jamie Carragher noted the difficulty of Tottenham’s final fixtures, describing Chelsea as “absolutely desperate to send Tottenham down.” West Ham interim boss Calum McFarlane highlighted the team’s resilience after breaking a six-game slump. Tottenham’s goalkeeping coach praised Antonín Kinsky’s performance in the Leeds draw as “heroic.”

Tottenham favourites to secure Premier League survival but do West Ham have better fixtures in relegation shoot-out?

Analysts point to Tottenham’s continued attacking inefficiency, noting that the side “misfires in attack” despite defensive improvements. Critics also stress the psychological pressure of a potential loss at Stamford Bridge, given the club’s historically poor record there. West Ham’s back-to-back defeats to Brentford and Arsenal have drawn scrutiny over their defensive consistency.

Tottenham favourites to secure Premier League survival but do West Ham have better fixtures in relegation shoot-out?

Spurs secured a 1-1 draw with Leeds United, with Kinsky making crucial saves. West Ham’s 1-1 draw at Liverpool under McFarlane ended a six-match losing run. Both matches were broadcast live on Sky Sports, providing real-time insights into the teams’ performances.

Tottenham almost made an Antonin Kinsky move that would have gotten them relegated

While some commentators argue Tottenham must earn a point at Chelsea to guarantee safety, Opta’s projections suggest two draws would suffice. The disparity between these viewpoints highlights uncertainty over the exact points threshold required for survival.

Tottenham favourites to secure Premier League survival but do West Ham have better fixtures in relegation shoot-out?

• “Newcastle away won't be easy. But Chelsea away? We know the rivalry. Chelsea will be absolutely desperate to send Tottenham down.” — Jamie Carragher, Former Player, Sky Sports

Tottenham favourites to secure Premier League survival but do West Ham have better fixtures in relegation shoot-out?

• “not in a million years” — Daniel Levy, Former Tottenham Chairman, Press Association

ESPN

• “We hope they play like this against West Ham because it is right like this.” — Roberto De Zerbi, Tottenham Manager, Sky Sports

Tottenham favourites to secure Premier League survival but do West Ham have better fixtures in relegation shoot-out?

• “What De Zerbi has done is given them belief, because everybody knows he's a top coach,” — Jamie Carragher, Former Player, Sky Sports

Tottenham favourites to secure Premier League survival but do West Ham have better fixtures in relegation shoot-out?

Spurs face Chelsea on 19 May and Everton on 24 May; West Ham meet Newcastle on 17 May and Leeds on 24 May. The outcomes will determine whether Tottenham’s defensive solidity and West Ham’s comparatively favorable fixtures are enough to keep both clubs in the Premier League for the 2026/27 season.

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