Full Breakdown
Xavier Becerra Leads Crowded California Gubernatorial Race Amid Scrutiny of Record and Federal Fraud Probe
5/15/2026, 4:44:13 AM
Core Event: Becerra Takes Lead in Governor’s Race
A recent Emerson College/Inside California Politics poll shows former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra at 19 % support, ahead of Republican Steve Hilton and Democrat Tom Steyer at 17 % each. The poll, conducted May 9-10 with a ±3 % margin of error, also notes 12 % of voters remain undecided. The top-two primary is scheduled for June 2, when the two highest-vote-getters will advance to the November general election.
Background & Context: Decades of Public Service and a Shifting Field
Becerra’s résumé includes more than 35 years in state and federal office: U.S. House leadership, California attorney general, and HHS secretary under President Joe Biden. The race accelerated after Rep. Eric Swalwell withdrew in April amid sexual-misconduct allegations, prompting a consolidation of Democratic support around Becerra.
Key Figures & Groups
Primary rivals include Steve Hilton (Republican commentator), Tom Steyer (billionaire activist), Katie Porter (former Rep.), Matt Mahan (San Jose mayor), and Antonio Villaraigosa (former Los Angeles mayor). Becerra has secured endorsements from labor unions, Latino state leaders, and Planned Parenthood Affiliates of California. Critics cite former aide Sean McCluskie’s guilty plea to fraud and the indictment of campaign-fund manager Dana Williamson.
Data & Statistics
- Poll support: Becerra 19 %, Hilton 17 %, Steyer 17 %; undecided 12 %.
- Fundraising: $2.3 million raised since Swalwell’s exit, up from $500 k in the first quarter.
- Voter issue priorities: economy 42 %, housing affordability 21 %, threats to democracy 9 %, immigration 8 %, health care 7 %.
- Voter loyalty: 52 % of Becerra’s supporters say they will definitely vote for him; 48 % remain open to change.
Official Statements & Responses
Becerra described the federal indictment of his former chief of staff as “a gut punch” and emphasized that the indictment lists him only as “Public Official 1,” not as a participant. He has repeatedly dismissed criticism of his HHS tenure as “Trump talking points.” In response to questions about a state-wide insurance-rate freeze, he said he would be “willing to go to court” to assert the authority. Emerson poll director Spencer Kimball attributed Becerra’s surge to his “breadth of experience” and strong performance among Democratic voters.
Criticism & Opposition
Katie Porter labeled Becerra “too much of a risk,” while Villaraigosa warned that the fraud scheme “doesn’t pass the smell test.” Tom Steyer accused Becerra of opposing single-payer health care. A 2023 New York Times investigation linked Becerra’s HHS office to the rapid placement of unaccompanied migrant children, noting missed safety checks and subsequent child-labor exploitation. Opponents have framed the fraud case involving McCluskie and Williamson as evidence of poor judgment.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
The indictment does not allege Becerra’s knowledge of the campaign-fund scheme, yet opponents cite his signature on payments. Regarding migrant children, Becerra calls the allegations “Trump lies,” while the Department of Health and Human Services’ Office of the Inspector General found that caseworkers failed to document background checks in 16 % of placements and omitted required follow-up contacts in over one-fifth of cases.
Verbatim Quotes
- “We’re going to talk about the truth and we’re going to move forward,” — Xavier Becerra, campaign spokesperson
- “He has this breadth of experience that none of the other candidates have,” — Matt Barreto, UCLA Voting Rights Project director
- “It doesn’t pass the smell test,” — Antonio Villaraigosa, former Los Angeles mayor
- “I do not have the facts here,” — Katie Porter, former U.S. Rep.
- “If I had been involved, the U.S. attorney would have had me in that indictment. I was not involved,” — Xavier Becerra, CNN debate, May 5
- “Xavier Becerra tops the crowded California primary for the first time in an Emerson poll, his support increased by nine points since mid-April, driven by now being the top choice among Democratic voters at 31%,” — Spencer Kimball, Emerson College Polling executive director
What’s Next: Primary, Debates, Potential General Election
The final gubernatorial debate is slated for Thursday in San Francisco. With ballots already mailed statewide, candidates will focus on persuading the 12 % of undecided voters before the June 2 primary. If Becerra and Hilton advance, the general election could pit a Democrat against a Republican in a state that historically favors Democratic candidates.
